By Gwynne Dyer
THE Ukrainian army is in retreat on every front. Since Russian regular army units came to the aid of the hard-pressed pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine’s two easternmost provinces a week ago, the tide of battle has turned decisively.
The two big rebel-held cities, Donetsk and Luhansk, are no longer besieged by Ukrainian forces. Luhansk airport fell to a Russian tank attack on Monday, Donetsk airport will also be captured soon, and the port city of Mariupol, back under government control since May, may be in Russian hands by the end of the weekend.
Meanwhile, those of us further from the scene are being bombarded with dodgy historical analogies. This week is the 75th anniversary of the outbreak of the Second World War in 1939, so it’s a good time to see if these analogies really stand up to scrutiny.
The first analogy is that Russia’s long-ruling president, Vladimir Putin, is another Adolf Hitler, committed to expanding Russia’s borders back out to the old Soviet frontiers, or maybe even further. Stop him now or it will be harder and more expensive to stop him later on – and anybody who disagrees is an “appeaser”.
It’s true that Putin has long referred to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 as the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century. He recently called for immediate talks on the “statehood” of the southeastern Ukrainian provinces that have fallen partly into the hands of the pro-Russians rebels. This would mean the further dismantling of Ukraine, after the Russian annexation of Crimea last March.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which used to be part of the old Russian and Soviet empires, are terrified by the implications of Putin’s recent actions for their own independence (they also have Russian-speaking minorities). Even Kazakhstan, far to the east, is getting worried, as Putin says that it is “part of the larger Russian world…I am confident that’s the way things are going to be.”
There are echoes in Putin’s project of Hitler’s first priority after he took power in Germany in 1933, which was to recover all the German-speaking eastern territories that had been stripped away from the fatherland after the First World War. But Hitler’s second, bigger project was the destruction of the “Jewish-Bolshevik” Soviet Union, which would have required a very big war (though he never intended to fight a “world war”).
Putin has no second project. He cannot embark on a Hitler-stye campaign of conquest, given Russia’s relatively modest economic and human resources. In any case the other former Soviet possessions in the west, the Baltic states, are already NATO members with solid defence guarantees.
Until the Ukrainian crisis blew up, Putin hadn’t even done much to regain the old Soviet frontiers during fifteen years in power. He’s still not talking about taking back the rest of Ukraine, so there’s no need to nip his plan for world conquest in the bud. He doesn’t have one.
This leads to the second big difference between 1939 and now. Back then Britain and France issued an unconditional guarantee that they would go to war if Hitler attacked Poland. Even though they actually had no military ability to help Poland, they felt they had to draw a line in the sand. Whereas NATO has not offered to defend Ukraine militarily no matter what Russia does: it is basically a local issue.
Those are the realities. Ukraine enjoys great sympathy in the West, but nobody will risk a nuclear war by committing NATO forces to save Donetsk and Luhansk. So if Kiev cannot stop the Russian/rebel offensive in the east, and there’s no foreign help coming, what should it do?
The first thing is to freeze the front lines by accepting a ceasefire – which seems still to be on offer. With every passing day Ukraine is losing more territory, and it won’t get it back for decades (if ever).
Russia will settle for a freeze, because Putin’s real goal, if he can no longer directly control the government in Kiev, is to paralyse the country by putting a cuckoo in the nest: creating a permanently dissenting, pro-Russian entity as part of the Ukrainian state. The way Ukraine can avoid that fate is by hardening the borders around the rebel-held territories as much and as fast as possible.
Let the rebels run the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk (Kiev has no choice in that), but DON’T integrate them into some rejigged federal state where they would hold a veto. And DON’T recognise their legitimacy if they declare independence or join Russia either. Treat them as another Crimea, in other words.
Leave the Russians the task of pouring huge, ongoing subsidies into what is really an immense open-air industrial museum, and concentrate instead on making an economic and political success of the rest of Ukraine – which would still have 90 per cent of the population.
And wait. Wait for corruption to dwindle and prosperity to grow in Ukraine, as it probably will when the country gets closer to the European Union. Wait for Putin to grow old and/or for Russia to get distracted by events elsewhere. And don’t get any more people killed when further fighting will just lose you more territory.
Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles on world affairs are published in 45 countries
75 Comments
PG
September 7, 2014 at 06:16Vladmir if your reading this theres only one thing you can do to help us cypriots, please get the Turks out of cyprus, you have the power to and can help us.
Plasma Dawn
September 7, 2014 at 06:53What can Putin do to move Turkey out of Cyprus?
PG
September 7, 2014 at 12:45Let’s face it all muslim nations stick up for each other. Russia is an Orthodox country and its clear Cyprus needs help to get back all that was lost in 74. If Russia wants they can help get the Turks out of the North and free Cyprus again. There is so many Russians in Ayia Napa having a good time, they need to help us out a little bit aswell. I bet turkey couldn’t handle an even war. Turkey has 664,000 active army military, whilst Russia has 766,000. Aucorse gutless Turkey attacks 12,000 Cyprus army and are proud. How bout a real war? Theres a reason why there called turkey
Plasma Dawn
September 7, 2014 at 13:32PG, let the world know when you write something serious and realistic so that I or others will not feel like wasting our time replying to your comment.
PG
September 7, 2014 at 14:48No worries plasma dawn
PG
September 7, 2014 at 15:43me want to see cyprus free so I can go back to my house in Kerynia.. no capish?
Cypriot80
September 7, 2014 at 18:40So you want a war then? Why can’t you get Greece to help you? Is it because Greece always loses a war with turkey? We don’t want a war
PG
September 8, 2014 at 13:28Britain and America didn’t want to let Greece help Cyprus in 74 however they welcomed the Turks with arms wide open though..
thebluehornett
September 7, 2014 at 08:24Be careful what you wish for comrade. Better the devil you know and Freedom is priceless, even in Cyprus.
Brettblade
September 7, 2014 at 00:54I sometimes wonder how many of the wars which take place in these times would happen if gas and oil were taken out of the equation. The sooner we move away from fossil fuels the better, not just because it’s cleaner but because of the vast sums of money influencing governments and capital investment.
Plasma Dawn
September 7, 2014 at 02:01Nothing will change one iota. If it isn’t fossil fuels it will be water resources, minerals, crops, fishing rights, and any other resource you can think of – not to even mention religious wars, ethnic grievances, or plain old territorial claims.
repulsewarrior
September 6, 2014 at 17:52…yes, one can “hope” that Putin can do better, for the lives of the dwellers on the land he grabs, than Turkey in Cyprus.
…Putin to me represents the biggest Capitalist supporter there is, I find it strange that he did not outright buy the Crimea, and whatever else he wants. It seems to me Russia has the money, and in the end, perhaps, in his new thinking something that can be emulated, rather than as it is perceived, plunder, having created so much enmity, no different to what occurred in the past elsewhere.
…it is Humanity which is at war with its worst parts, Russia is not placing itself toward that service. Putin may still represent its good parts, or even its best qualities, because he has the power to do so. But, like all of us he must change himself in confronting his own fears. Let’s face it, he is part of the 1%, (or wants to be), where the rest of us are the 99%. What of his legacy in Russia, or the “new” Capitalism he spawned, it is moments like these that are so filled with irony, where the revolution Marx predicted as inevitable could happen, when “we” realise who the “them” are, quite clearly, and act accordingly.
Plasma Dawn
September 7, 2014 at 02:03I may have misunderstood you, but it looks to me you can be an ideal friend of costaskarseras.
costaskarseras
September 6, 2014 at 15:01If anyone resembled Hitler in this tragic event, it was no other than the NATO Secretary General Rasmussen who must be an embarrassment for his well respected country, Denmark. Rasmussen and the syndicate of the NATO warmongers’ drums fell on deaf ears and they sensed that their war cry had not had the response from their people. The people don’t believe them any more after their recent lies and the mess they created in Iraq, Libya and Syria. The US and European people have more pressing everyday problems and the consequences of unemployment to deal with. The NATO leaders remembered the experience of Napoleon and Hitler at the last moment and made a retread to avoid blackouts this winter and the wrath of their people.
I am sure people of goodwill are sending their best wishes to the two nations to reach a peaceful resolution to their problems.
Bemused
September 6, 2014 at 15:06Mr Karseras
Funny enough Nato has protected you for the five decades you have lived in the Capitalist UK.
Plasma Dawn
September 7, 2014 at 02:13NATO has not protected Costas from anything. On the contrary, it prevented western Europe from being overrun by the Russians and thus making Costas finally happy and content in the communist paradise that would surely have followed.
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 18:16Oh NO. No one can beat uncle Vlad .Putin as the heir of Hitler.
Plasma Dawn
September 7, 2014 at 02:11Chris, you must know you’re not being rational with this analogy. However negative Putin may be, he is not up to exterminating or enslaving any country or peoples, doesn’t have a nightmarish vision of a master Slavic race, and life in Russia bears no comparison with the oppression and regime of terror of the Third Reich under the Nazis and their Gestapo.
thebluehornett
September 7, 2014 at 08:27At the moment?
Cris Dan
September 7, 2014 at 08:33I am dealing with the present scenario .You must know that you are not being rational .
Plasma Dawn
September 7, 2014 at 00:32Costas, you are one uninterrupted source of entertainment on CM. Keep up the good work, or it may be very boring around these parts.
Meserlian
September 6, 2014 at 12:45“No, Vladimir Putin isn’t another Adolf Hitler” http://t.co/yXWOWyw0Eo
thebluehornett
September 6, 2014 at 12:13Ofcourse he’s not like Hitler, he has no moustache.
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 13:54yes.The only difference.
GSP
September 6, 2014 at 12:01A good article with reasoned arguments. Something rare these days in journalism.
But prosperity will not grow in Ukraine The country was virtually bankrupt before all of this kicked off. Now they have spent a fortune on a futile civil war and they have no means of recovering from it financially. They need to borrow, and then, like Cyprus, find a way to pay back.
Trevor
September 6, 2014 at 11:12So there is censorship at the Cyprus Mail. Truth is not encouraged !
Plasma Dawn
September 6, 2014 at 13:22What happened?
KalleBlomqvist
September 6, 2014 at 10:57East Ukraine is described as an immense open air industrial museum above, but it is the part of Ukraine that makes all the money.
It has all the mineral resources, and of course the shale gas. Without it Ukraine is economically finished.
GSP
September 6, 2014 at 12:02Ah yes. The shale gas. That is what the US president’s son is after isn’t it?
Neroli
September 6, 2014 at 14:42Vice President Bidens son, Borisma holdings
Trevor
September 6, 2014 at 10:47Putin’s policy towards Ukraine is identical to Hitler’s policy towards Czechoslovakia and Turkey’s policy towards Cyprus.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 11:56when you look over historical concepts will realize that the crimea was owned by Russia on this speech and historical facts and contemporary journalism can write that Putin is related to Hitler
Crimea was part of Russia from 1783, when the Tsarist Empire annexed it a decade after defeating Ottoman forces in the Battle of Kozludzha, until 1954, when the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR).
Trevor
September 6, 2014 at 12:25I agree with your facts Max but they don’t alter the fact that Putin is using Hitler’s tactics !
Max
September 6, 2014 at 13:48j sugest to use your own brain thers no threat from russians they saw what Nato did on Kosovo and they are preventing that in Ukraine thats all
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 13:53Actually Bosnia was tougher a war field in the beginning.
Kosova was an amazing operation. Russia should never think to take trouble with NATO.
gentlegiant161
September 7, 2014 at 11:05Chechnyia ?
Max
September 6, 2014 at 10:41Russia is not SERBIA you cant bomb her to death to sign its own death certificate thats the problem ! In Cyprus must have good journalists who write their own free will and reason and not according to the dictates
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 11:10Serbia/Servia was a mini Russia.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 11:24and Russia is not SERVIA thats the problem
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 11:33Russia will have its DAY.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 11:39very soon j expect the makeing of RAMBO 15 fighting against notorious Rusian assasins for the sake of ocupied Ukrainian population thats all US can make
Max
September 6, 2014 at 12:03I forgot Bruce Willis he could smuggle Ukrainians couple nukes
Plasma Dawn
September 6, 2014 at 13:21Serbia was a mini Russia without nuclear weapons while Russia is a maxi Serbia without the atrocities and senseless destruction that we saw in the Bosnian and Croatian wars of independence.
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 13:51Russia had been directly supporting Serbia and prior to that to Bosnia (to slavic minority) with openly distribution of weapons there. It was a very smooth and swift operation by US /NATO and many trained agents in that area as well as by majority of sick and fed up poeple of the places that situation could not reach the point of russian nuclear power. That was incredibly successful operation/series of operations because of correct choice in best teams.Otherwise Russia was not backing off.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 14:01what I can say and that is that the United States and England upbringing countries like Somalia, Serbia, Egypt, Afghanistan, and wherein the ratio of armament in 1000:1 one comparing force against resistance. and as for very precise operations in Serbia can say that the damage in Serbia over 30 billion dollars and that the Serbian industry returned to the level in 1960s not to mention period of isolation before the bombing, which lasted 10 years . Now I understand the anger that is generated when the opponent is not, a tiny mouse and a striker is a cat.
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 14:13For ex-Yugoslavia ,it was NOT only NATO.
The whole world was together. There were troops form all over the world .Having independent countries out of one communist empire namely Yugoslavia was not a deed done by NATO only.It was genuinely supported by all the forces from all the world in favour of democracy.Croatia and Slovenia were fighting with Slavic since long themselves so it was a genuine act .Those were the times when forces from Latin America from Jordan, from Asia were together .
Plasma Dawn
September 6, 2014 at 16:29I wasn’t aware that there were other countries involved in the war with Serbia besides NATO. By the way, Jordan is in Asia.
Bemused
September 6, 2014 at 14:16Max/Guest
Please get it right UK/Great Britain not England , there a good man
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 14:22I have tried to elaborate it. I was working the area from 1992 to 1997 and then 1999 to 2006. I knew it was a operation supported by each and every country in the world except Cyprus.Even Ethiopia supported it very well. I am a witness what Russians and Serbians had done to all community in the then Yugoslavia.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 14:38Your elaboration is a weak intervention was done without the permission of the Security Council and the driving force was the USA who ordered the attack 17 countries with the strongest combat potential to crush Serbia, which had weapons from the 60s which confirms my statement where nato if there is an assessment of losses by 6-10% then intervene if it does not then it does not include the operation as to the communist way of settling in Serbia can say that we were America to Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, but were overtaken and overnight became a member of the EU because they allow NATO to open base on their territory
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 14:47A complete operation supported practically by all the world.
Keep your weak counter theories to yourself. When defeated people talk like this.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 14:53I’m not ashamed to be defeated from the strongest becouse we were the weakest that says more about you and not about me going back again to attack many times weaker than yourself
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 18:19we who?
Max
September 6, 2014 at 14:26you caught for stupid program translates my conversation so that translated in a way that is funny to you, unlike you I am educated in school and you’re in the pub
Bemused
September 6, 2014 at 14:29I do know how to describe countries by there right names once you get that right you might be able to discuss other countries.
As to your education I really can not say what standard the Moscow state schools are.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 14:37have a beer waisting time here
Bemused
September 6, 2014 at 14:42Dear Max,
I am afraid I am not going for a pint just now maybe later but as to wasting /waisting my time. Well at least I have helped you by showing you once again to stop describing Great Britain as England.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 14:44OK now take a cold one
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 14:49Actually majority was not from USA/UK. The operations were supported by all the democratic world and nearly all the continents were there.
Max
September 6, 2014 at 15:09I’m no longer in the mood to talk to you because Im not Brezhnev nor am I a Russian student and you live in the past and the state you are threatened by the Vietcong communism and even all sorts of nonsense
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 18:19Other way round. You live with a wrong and incorrect version of history.
Plasma Dawn
September 6, 2014 at 16:33Bemused, while some Britons may be great – thus “Great Briton” – the correct spelling is “Great Britain”.
Bemused
September 6, 2014 at 16:44cheers PD
Cris Dan
September 6, 2014 at 14:45I had one PHD from Moscow Uni during my posting in Serbia. He was the most incompetent colleague we could have. He used to lose his basic concept in his translation to english language as he claimed always.
gentlegiant161
September 7, 2014 at 11:13He is another new one to the forum and like the other new ones isnt quite up to speed yet…apart from his knowledge of russian non interventions..
Richie Cartmann
September 6, 2014 at 16:08No need to bomb Russia out of the world map. Russia has Putin to do that job for the world