Cyprus Mail
Guest Columnist Opinion

US elections: common sense will eventually prevail

Republican U.S. presidential candidate businessman Donald Trump

Steven G. Traylor, Political Contributor

The US presidential election cycle crossed a threshold on March 15 and on March 22 with the Democrats and Hillary Clinton winning six additional states.  The Republicans continue in undecided flux, with front runner Donald Trump beating Senator Ted Cruz, Governor John Kasich and eliminating Florida Senator Marco Rubio from the US presidential contest, over the course of eight states.

The presidential nominating process since the beginning of 2016, remains uncertain with the likes of some 22 candidate now whittled down to five, and we still do not know who the presumed standard bearer for the Republicans may be, where as for the Democrats, the picture is clearer.

For Vermont Democrat Senator Bernie Sanders, it is just a matter of time before it is over in his bid to become the nominee.

Hillary Clinton currently has nearly double the number of convention delegates Sanders has.  If all the remaining delegates are split 50:50, Hillary Clinton goes to the convention with sufficient delegate count to win on the 1st ballot.  Sanders need to win an average of 65% of remaining delegate in every remaining primary and caucus, in order to stop Hillary.  Thus far, Sanders has won but three out of some 33 states with that type of showing.

However, Sanders still poses a thorn in the side of Clinton and will face a philosophical fight at the convention, as the liberal progressive Sanders will push his agenda through the Platform, the manifesto the Democrat Party will adopt at the end of the convention.

For the Republicans, now three of them; the headlines continue to read ‘what to do about Trump’?

The media attention both for and against Trump has taken on a more pointed international flavour based on his outrageous comments about banning Muslims and suggesting ‘’closing borders’’ in Europe following terror attack in Brussels.

In the UK, Mayor of London Boris Johnson says he would “stay out of New York for fear of running into Donald Trump”.  Johnson was born in the US, and likewise is eligible to run for US president, if he were to so choose. If Trump can do it, anybody can, if you got the money.

In the Chinese Global Times newspaper recently, the self-proclaimed billionaire candidate is described as “big-mouthed” and “abusively forthright.”  The piece declares that Trump at first was acting as “a clown to attract more voters for the GOP,” but warns that he has now “opened a Pandora’s box in US society.”  However, the extreme right wing of the Republican Party continues to support him in the primary and caucus process; he is still not receiving solid main stream Republican support.  His support comes from angry white men mostly.

While in support of Trump, in Moscow one local state sponsored TV programme presenter, Dmitri Kiselvov of Rossiya Segodnya (Russia Today) calls Trump an “anti-establishment” candidate, who stood apart from the hierarchy of the Republican Party and wants to forge good relations with the Kremlin.  Kiselyov had praised the “anti-establishment” Trump as the “rising star” of US politics.

Often described as Putin’s favourite TV presenter, Kiselev is famous for his pronouncement that gays and lesbians “should be prohibited from donating blood, sperm, and, in the case of a road accident, their hearts should be either buried or cremated as unsuitable for the prolongation of life.”

So there you have it, from condemnation to support for what is going on in US 2016 presidential election steeplechase.  America has produced a string of contenders on the far right, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz and on the far left, Bernie Sanders.

In the mean time, the hierarchy of the Republican Party is attempting to see ‘what it can do’ about Trump, as political leader debate whether to mount a true  anti-Trump assault, surrender to the presumed eventual nominee or to begin plotting a third-party main line “true conservative” challenge in the fall.


What happens next?


Some 33 US states and territories have participated in the US electoral process, and the name of the game today is delegates.  Both the Democrats and Republicans have national rules by which they operate, and securing 50 per cent plus one delegate makes each the standard bearer, on the 1st ballot come national convention time for both political parties.

Today, a stop Trump movement is just beginning on various fronts, but it will ultimately fail, as history has shown.  With Trump, the horse is out of the barn, and there is no way in raining in this galloping seed to deny him the nomination, a true demagogue in every sense of the word.

This is what US politics has come to in the spring of 2016.

History has shown however, in 1963 moderate Republicans tried to get highly regarded and loved by the American people, former President Dwight Eisenhower to speak out to stop arch conservative Senator Barry Goldwater from getting the 1964 nomination, but failed. Eventually Goldwater went down to defeat to then president Lyndon Johnson, having carried but six states out of 50.

In 1972 America saw a liberal, Senator George McGovern involved in a Democratic convention floor fight over the rules that governed the convention.  McGovern succeeded in getting rules changes at the convention in his favour and became the nominee. But in the general election lost 49 of 50 states to President Richard Nixon – in his re-election effort.

1976 saw then Republican Governor of California, Ronald Reagan tried to stop the nomination of President Gerald Ford before the convention by picking his VP running mate, in hopes of getting the Republican Pennsylvania delegation to support him, and stop Ford at the convention.  That did not work, and Ford was running for election – following the resignation of Richard Nixon and eventually lost to Governor Jimmy Carter in the general election.

Four years later, Senator Ted Kennedy tried to stop the re-nomination of President Carter by getting the Democratic rules committee to declare all were free to voter their mind on the 1st ballot.  A convention floor fight followed, Carter got the eventual nomination, but only to lose to then Governor Ronald Reagan who becomes president in January 1981 – beating Carter.


This Time – common sense will prevail AFTER political blood is spilt


Historically, America has become a great nation and a leader in the free world by not electing extremist candidates on the political right or left – when Americans voters go to the polls every four years to vote for POTUS.  Political times have a way dictating who the US candidates will be – but in the end, common sense prevails when American voters make their choice the 1st week of November.

Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the Democratic nominee come the convention in Philadelphia, PA in late July.  Sanders will eventually unite around Clinton and the Democrats will have shown to America and the world, how a civil democratic presidential process should be played out.

In Cleveland, it will not be a easy coronation of Donald Trump, but more than likely, Trump will go to the convention short of the needed delegates to win on a 1st ballot nomination process.  The whole situation will turn very ugly, but for the eventual sake of party unity, Trump will become the nominee.  After that, all gloves are off in the general election, as the true fighting and mudslinging escalates.

Come Election Day this November, Hillary Clinton will be elected the 1st female president of the United States, following Barrack Obama, and Trump will return his Trump Tower.

This is the real world, and the world will be a better place with the retirement of Donald Trump on 9th of November, 2016, the day after US elections takes place.

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