A POLL ahead of the parliamentary elections indicates that despite raising the electoral threshold from 1.8 per cent to 3.6 per cent, seven parties out of the 12 running will most likely see representatives elected in the 56-seat legislative body come May 22.
According to the survey conducted by Metron Analysis for Gnora Communication Consultants, apart from the parties that traditionally gather the most votes, DISY, AKEL and DIKO, it is expected that the Citizens Alliance, the Solidarity Movement, the Green Party-Citizens Cooperation, and EDEK will secure seats. The survey was published in Politis on Sunday.
The threshold bill, authored by DISY leader Averof Neophytou, was voted in late last year by the House plenum, but it had raised concerns among the smaller parties, which said it was undermining representative democracy.
According to the survey results, conducted through 601 phone interviews with individuals over 18, DISY is to be in the lead, as more than 20 per cent of those asked said they would vote for the ruling party, followed by AKEL with 15.4 per cent. Six per cent said they would vote DIKO, 3.6per cent said Citizens Alliance, 3.4 per cent said the Solidarity Movement, 3.2 per cent said the Green Party, and 3.1 per cent said EDEK.
Around 1.6 per cent said they would vote ultra right-wing ELAM, but according to the survey this will not raise enough votes to meet the threshold to secure a seat. Furthermore, 6.8 per cent said they would cast a blank or invalid vote, 18.4 per cent said they would not vote, 12.7 per cent said they did not decide yet, while 3.6 per cent did not answer.
Based on estimations of valid votes, according to the survey, DISY is to receive around 35.5 per cent of the vote, ΑΚΕL around 26.4 per cent, and DIKO a little over 10 per cent.
The Citizens Alliance is estimated to get 6.1 per cent of the vote, the Solidarity Movement 5.8 per cent, the Green Party-Citizens Cooperation 5.5 per cent, EDEK 5.2 per cent and ELAM 2.7 per cent. More than two per cent of the vote is expected to be allocated to other candidates.
As regards voting criteria, the majority, 61 per cent, said they would vote according to their opinion about political parties and 26 per cent said on the basis of their opinion on governance.
Among those who said they supported the left wing, 74.6 per cent said they would vote for AKEL, more than 15 per cent said they would either cast a blank vote or not vote at all, while 7.4 per cent said they had not decided how to vote yet.
The majority of supporters of the centre-left, more than one fifth, said they would vote for AKEL, 13 per cent said they would vote for DIKO, and almost the same number said they would vote for EDEK. More than 8 per cent said they would cast their vote for the Citizens Alliance. However more than 15 per cent said they would not vote or would cast a blank vote, and around 20 per cent said they were undecided.
More than 20 per cent of those who said they support the centre, would vote for DIKO, while 8.2 per cent said they would vote for Citizens Alliance, 6.5 per cent for the Green Party-Citizens Cooperation, 6 per cent for DISY, 4.8 per cent for EDEK, and 4.2 per cent for AKEL. Almost one quarter, 24.2 per cent said they would cast a blank vote and 13.3 per cent were undecided.
Among the right wingers, more than half said they would vote for DISY, while the Solidarity Movement and ELAM would receive around the same percentage, 4.7 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. Those who said they would cast a blank vote and who have not decided yet reached around the same numbers – 13 per cent.
The majority of those who identified themselves with the centre-right, more than 38 per cent, said they would vote for DISY, while more than 6 per cent said they would vote for DIKO. The Citizens Alliance was third in preferences with 5.3 per cent, EDEK with 4.1 per cent, followed with slightly fewer votes by the Solidarity Movement.
More than 15 per cent said they would cast a blank vote, while 20 per cent said they had not decided yet.
As regards the popularity of President Nicos Anastasiades, opinions appear to be divided, as 41 per cent said they were satisfied with his performance but 42 per cent said they were not.
Ministers did not appear to be very popular as more than half said they felt disappointed by them.
Concerning the Cyprus problem, the majority, more than half of those polled, said they did not see a solution being reached, while 40 per cent said they believed a solution was possible. In the case of a referendum, more than a third, said they would vote “yes”. The same number said they were not in a position to know yet how they would vote, and 27 per cent said they would vote “no”.
Among political party leaders, the survey indicated that the most popular is the Greens’ Giorgos Perdikis, followed by Eleni Theocharous, and Nicolas Papadopoulos in third place. EDEK’s Marinos Sizopoulos was the least favourite.