By Michele Kambas
Turkey’s crackdown on government opponents and the imposition of a state of emergency following the abortive military coup last week has tempered hopes of a swift settlement in Cyprus.
Nicosia is watching with increasing trepidation how the fallout could hit reunification talks.
The turbulence in Turkey has so far not touched northern Cyprus but Turkey’s crisis is unsettling for interlocutors hoping for a deal by the end of 2016, or at least before talks are hijacked by elections on both sides scheduled in 2018.
Diplomats have previously said the current round of peace talks is the best chance in generations for ending the conflict.
“Nobody actually knows if it will have an effect,” said one official close to the peace process. “But it is overshadowing negotiations … There are elements that are big unknowns.”
Turkey’s input is vital for agreeing to a pullout of the 30,000 or more Turkish troops, adjusting military-controlled boundaries between the north and south and writing off an estimated 17 billion euros ($18.8 billion) it considers as Turkish Cypriot debt to Ankara.
“If they don’t write that off there is no way there can be a settlement,” said the official.
An assumption of legacy Turkish Cypriot debt could financially smother the republic, which just emerged from the bailout programme, the official said.
For James Ker-Lindsay at the London School of Economics, Turkey’s crisis should be an impetus to islanders to sort out the conflict as soon as possible.
“It’s a wake-up call for both sides…it doesn’t appear like Turkey has any anchor to the West anymore. All the logic, seen from the outside, is that they (Cypriots) should get a solution, get a solution now,” he told Reuters.
Although Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had been “by and large constructive” on Cyprus, he is extremely unpredictable, said Hubert Faustmann, a political analyst.
“That’s the problem. This guy can get up tomorrow morning and do a 180 degree turnaround,” Faustmann said.
Cypriot reunification talks have typically floundered on issues ranging from re-drawing of boundaries between the two sides to property rights of thousands of displaced persons, or the status of tens of thousands of mainland Turks transferred to northern Cyprus after the war.
For a young family of Turkish mainlanders strolling in the scorching Nicosia heat, their allegiance was unmistakeable; taking turns, two youngsters, a boy and a girl, embraced a Turkish flag hanging outside a store.
The similar designed but different in colour Turkish Cypriot flag hanging on the door front of the shop next door was ignored.