In a democratic country, should negotiations for a Cyprus settlement be held in secret or should the public have a source of accurate and responsible information?
This question has come up repeatedly in recent months with respect to leaks from the National Council, the demands by the opposition to be informed, and the fact that lack of information creates public disquiet and leaves the public susceptible to interpretations by politicians eager to provide information supporting their positions.
On the basis of my 30 years of experience in various aspects of the Cyprus talks, my response is that in a democratic society, where the final decision will be taken by the population in referendums, there has to be a balance which still allows secrecy for proper discussion of the very difficult issues to be resolved but prevents politicians from playing to the crowd.
The decision is correct to have secret negotiations in Switzerland next week on the crucial issue of territorial adjustment. That is the area within the boundary line between two provinces envisaged in a Federal Republic of Cyprus that will be administered separately by the two communities. It is of great importance that decisions on the territory of the provinces are taken without outside pressures, whether that be from foreign powers, political opposition, or people concerned about their property and their future.
From 1997 until 2004 I was officially part of the negotiation team established by President Clerides representing the Greek Cypriot side, with the help of colleagues in the Lands and Surveys, Planning Bureau and Statistics Department. With the support of Stella Soulioti who was the organisational and underlying influence in the Greek Cypriot negotiation effort from 1959 to at least 2008, we set up the information and computerised data base for the Cyprus talks. Their main aim was to clarify issues relating to the crucial but difficult territorial, population and property issues in the Cyprus talks. The system was set up to be able to analyse any idea, scenario or proposal on these issues and produce maps within 40 minutes at a request from the president, or the chief advisor on the Cyprus problem.
Throughout this period from 1997 to 2004 we received telephone calls and visits from respected people in society urging us to include some town or village within the province to be administered by the Greek Cypriot community in the south. These issues cannot be discussed openly, because whatever village or town is left out creates organised opposition while the negotiations are actually proceeding. In view of leaks from within those actually in the negotiation and support teams, exceptional security measures were taken and only those actually involved with territorial adjustment were briefed or involved. Keeping things secret in Cyprus is impossible, but abroad it can be done although exceptional measures are necessary.
This week, however, contacts with people brought home to me that the public is not well informed about the progress in a Cyprus settlement, and tend to be misinformed. I went to my local kiosk to pick up the newspaper and cigarettes, and the owner – a well-educated and knowledgeable man – was upset. “What is going to happen after a settlement with cigarettes. Will there be a border with checks on goods and movement? These packets of tobacco are 40 per cent cheaper north of the Green Line.”
I replied that he should not worry because that issue has been resolved since at least 2004. Cigarette prices in Cyprus, and most of Europe, are mainly determined by excise duties and VAT. Under a settlement all value added and excise taxes will be uniform, and collected by the federal government. That is essential in order that there should be no customs checks on the boundary. After deducting federal costs, the funds are to be distributed to the provinces. To my surprise, he did not believe me, yet I took it for granted that everyone knew about these arrangements.
People should know that if there are to be passport checks or customs authorities on the boundary, or crossing points, there will be no solution. This is clear, and an honest effort is being made by both sides to prevent such obstacles to freedom of movement and trade.
At lunch time I went to pick up the grandchildren from school, and met in the shade with a group of fellow grandparents from various backgrounds and political views. In this group we discuss everything and anything. When I turned up, they asked me whether I thought that a solution may come out of the meetings in Switzerland. I replied that in my view the situation on the ground is very difficult to resolve, but that by finally getting to grips with territorial adjustment we will see whether or not a solution is likely. One said that the key is for Turkey to decide. My response was that view is a simplification, because my understanding is that on issues which do not directly concern Turkey, the views of the Turkish Cypriot leaders are taken into account.
I then explained that territorial adjustment will involve population movement, and the problems will mainly affect the Turkish Cypriot community, settlers from Turkey, and others currently living on Greek Cypriot property. Unless we can address these problems and find solutions, it is unlikely that we can resolve these issues.
Someone said that Turkey will have to finance these measures. Another said that Turkey appears to have stated it wants the $18 billion it has given to the Turkish Cypriot community over the years to be repaid.
I walked away feeling that it is necessary to inform the people on what decisions have been reached, and what they mean, while keeping secret the negotiations on territory, property and security until agreements are reached. The press and media have generally failed in this respect, and the two leaders and UN should proceed to inform the people on the issues of agreement in matters which affect their daily lives. Because in the end it is their vote in the referendum that counts.
Costas Apostolides is an economist and Lecturer at Malta University, and a founder member of Pax Cypria Cyprus Institute for Peace. [email protected]
13 Comments
emba paphos
November 5, 2016 at 20:42“The system was set up to be able to analyse any idea, scenario or proposal on these issues and produce maps within 40 minutes at a request from the president, or the chief advisor on the Cyprus problem”
Will the tc dispute this system and the way it generates results? I know I do, as the land registry is far from perfect (but much better than of Greeces I know)
Costas Apostolides
November 6, 2016 at 10:46Good point. The original data on ownership were prepared and handwritten by the Lands and Surveys Dept in 1964, but were check with the computerized data base in 2004 and found to be remarkably accurate. Though the problems of 1963/64 have caused certain gaps, overall the property ownership provides a reasonable basis for studies. The data base has since been amended, I believe on the basis of the disclosures by GCC displaced according to the computerized records. I am not up-to-date on how it has been done, but it is not necessarily more accurate than the 1964 records. The population data are based on the 1960 Census, but we have always recommended the 1973 basis as more accurate. The TCC leadership does not recognise the 1973 estimate, and the GCC side proposed that we work the data together for a common base and they the TCC rejected that proposal. Using the TCC post 1974 Cenuses, the data for the TCC in the 1973 Census look reasonable as a basis, the disparities are not serious. TCC post 2074 census data has been used to examine the TCC land Turkish citizens likely to be affected by territorial adjustment, but we have a problem with their 2011 census because villages are grouped and we cannot use the data easily. Land value were estimated by Lands and Surveys for 1974, and are disputed by the TCC. However, the main problem is that people do not understand that in 1973 the developed part of the island was in the North and Limassol, and that Pafos was relatively under developed. The only modern hotel in Pafos pre-1974 was the Paphos Beach now the Almyra. The problem being that many of the TCC properties are in Pafos. I presume that our offer for a common data base is still in place, but I do not think we have raised the issue.
emba paphos
November 6, 2016 at 17:58Appreciate reply Mr.Costas, so it does boil down to both sides having a land registry with figures that can be verified both relating to ownesrhip and values, in your reply you mention land values being estimated for 1974 , this is slightly worrying…..I for one am not of the mindset that any compensation should be in terms of 74 values….I say this eventhough many gc displaced were re-housed albeit in much lesser accomodation than property they abandoned, and as we know there was also financial help for them too….I am pretty sure the roc is doing the math to weigh up what refugees have been in given in relation to what they lost…..could well turn out that a fair few may not be eligible for compensation if what they lost up north is lesser in value than what the rocy has coughed up so far to help them….(all depends on wether or not 74 values for compensation)
Cruncher
November 5, 2016 at 15:14Seasoned or not as time has progressed re these talks it pointing towards the only solution for the TC’s is to knuckle down and work something out with their GC neighbours as mainland Turkey is looking like not a good option.
Even though Turkey reckon they will pay the bill in 4-5 months they owe $200 million to Iran for the power they import. That is a big bill.
Just too many things are not going right.
A unification is looking a better option as Turkey continues to implode.
This will get worse for Turkey. Much worse too much corruption and big money is involved.
Tommy Lobotomy
November 5, 2016 at 16:56Turkey at this point is certainly not looking like a “good option” for Turkish Cypriots–at least that’s how it would appear from this side of the line. But unfortunate reality is Erdogan is pulling the strings–and from what one gathers, Turkish Cypriots are making virtually no concessions: a small section of Famagusta and the dead zone. With Turkey transforming itself into Islamo-fascist state, it’s time for Anastasiades to have a bit of courage and suspend the negotiations. So long as Erdogan remains in power (and continues to have support of EU and US), there’s no point in continuing with what is now a farce.
Slomi
November 5, 2016 at 08:35Only seasoned and mature diplomats/statesmen are well groomed in keeping such balances.
Jay Bee
November 5, 2016 at 11:24That is a very wise and accurate comment S…
Slomi
November 5, 2016 at 11:25Thank you Birthday Boy:)
Jay Bee
November 5, 2016 at 11:32*blushes*
Costas Apostolides
November 6, 2016 at 19:22Reply to EMBA
You are right to be wary of compensation payments based on 1974 values. The calculation of the cost of compensation to GCC owners of property in northern Cyprus should be calculated on the basis of the 4 options for displaced that have been agreed. That is restitution (no compensation but payment to user of improvement), compensation in cash and user keeps property, compensation in terms of property, and a combination of the methods. Recently Erado Marcoullis stated that there were land s and surveys estimates on property values from Euro 73 billion to Euro 36billion, I am sure the basis is on the 1974 values, but do not know the assumptions.
On the other hand Fionna Mullen has estimated compensation at Euro 5 billion on basis of the Property Commission set up by Turkey in northern Cyprus under the Instructions of the European Court of human Rights. These values are very low. Press Reports refer to IMF estimates of around Euro 13 billion.
Above exclude loss of use compensation, which is probably higher after 42 years.
Last month there was an announcement that The Organization for the Fair Distribution of the Burdens of what has happened since 1974 is putting together a data base on all assistance given to the GCC displaced. I leave it to your imagination why this is being done now.
I disagree that a large number of displaced have received more in assistance than they had before 1974. most have huge losses. Some have gains for example those who received land on Mackenzie beach.
For a proper assessment to be made:
1. The area under territorial adjustment has to be decided.
2. The choices of displaced have to be known, but to choose they have to know what conditions they will live under if they choose the northern Provence (schools, health, social insurance, freedoms, human rights etc).
3. How many would choose government land (choice of north or south).
4. What prices to base compensation, northern or southern (the difference is huge prabbly over 50%).
5. The effect of the 22 land categories decided upon (now 23) on the choices.
6. How will payment on improvement be calculated (method still outstanding).
I have requested serious studies on comparative land values today, but no one seems interested in real research that would clarify many of the issues.
Mustafa Mehmet
November 5, 2016 at 13:46BRAVO SLOMI
Slomi
November 5, 2016 at 17:20🙂
Tommy Lobotomy
November 5, 2016 at 16:57Who are you referring to? Anastasiades is being taken to the cleaners.