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Johnson is banking on energy, optimism, bluff and threat

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson Lorne Campbell/Pool via REUTERS

The Tories “unemployment figures” are dodgy to say the least since they don’t take into account either hours worked, pay or job security. Inflation being low is also determined by a country going into recession. For the first two quarters of 2019 adverts for new jobs have fallen by 2.3%.

At the end of the day any company operating in the UK will look at its costs, revenues and profits. A low pound raises the costs of imported raw materials and unless these costs are off set by the revenues from increased sales then the company will move elsewhere. Welsh lamb will be now be cheaper but a 50% tariff will offset the difference between its “devalued cost” due to the low pound and the addition of the tariff.

Finally, when you’ve got no trade agreements with any country in the world which will be the situation when we leave and if we leave without a deal then the value of the pound is irrelevant if you’re not doing any business with anyone except on WTO rules!

Johnson is either bluffing or so blinded by ideology and by his belief that he is a reborn Churchill saving Britain from a hostile Europe that while we may end leaving on 31st October, neither he, you, I or the rest of the Brexiteer cohort on have a clue what will happen to the UK economy.

Right now we don’t even know if we’ll be talking about “the UK economy” or the “English economy”..

A post script occurs to me. When Churchill stood fast between 1940 and 1941 when the Soviet Union and the USA bailed us out.

He knew one thing as an absolute certainty: Britain was not going to be invaded. He also knew that Britain on her own was not going to invade Hitler’s Europe.

Johnson on the other hand knows absolutely nothing: He is relying on bluff, threat, energy and optimism. As to whether any of those can influence reality is another matter.

GE

UK plays Brexit hardball with ‘stubborn’ EU

 

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