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Cyprus in 2070: women to live to 90, men 86, population 1.1 million

By 2070, life expectancy at birth in Cyprus will be 86 years for men and 90 for women, according to a new report from the European Commission on Wednesday.

The European Commission has adopted its first-ever report on the Impact of Demographic Change. It presents the drivers of this long-term change and the impact it is having across Europe. It also highlights the links between demographic structures and the impact and recovery potential from the coronavirus crisis.

The report shows long-term demographic trends in Europe’s regions – from longer life expectancy, to lower birth rates, ageing societies, smaller households and increasing urbanisation. It also shows Europe’s declining share of global population – expected to account for less than 4 per cent of the world’s population by 2070.

According to the report, Europeans already enjoy longer lives with life expectancy at birth increasing by about 10 years for both men and women over the last five decades.

It said the pandemic had exposed the vulnerabilities of an ageing population, but it is not thought likely to have changed this overall positive trend on life expectancy.

In 2070, life expectancy at birth across the bloc is projected to reach 86.1 years for men, up from 78.2 in 2018.

For women, it is estimated at 90.3 – up from 83.7.

“Where you live has a major influence on your life expectancy. At national level, life expectancy at birth ranges from 83.5 in Spain to 75 in Bulgaria,” the report said.

“There are differences between women and men living in different parts of the EU. While women’s life expectancy at birth for the EU-27 is 5.5 years higher than men’s, the picture is not the same everywhere. In Latvia and Lithuania, the gap is more than nine years, while in Denmark, Ireland, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Sweden, it is less than four.”

The report said that as median age increases, so does the number and share of people in the older age groups.

By 2070, 30 per cent of people in Europe are estimated to be aged 65 and above, up from about 20 per cent today.

From 2019 until 2070, the share of people aged 80 or over is projected to more than double to 13 per cent.

At the same time, the working-age population (20-64 years) is projected to decrease. In 2019, it amounted to 59 per cent of the entire population.

By 2070, it is projected to be down to 51 per cent. In that time, the number of children and young people (aged 0-19) is projected to decrease by 12.6 million.

Specifically for Cyprus, it predicts that age groups from 20 to 39 will shrink by 10-15 per cent by 2070 and the age group 60-80 will increase to 30 per cent. The total population will reach 1.1 million by 2070. At the same time, deaths in 2070 will marginally exceed births, and the fertility rate will remain close to or below 1.5.

Vice President for Democracy and Demography, Dubravka Šuica, said: “The crisis has exposed many vulnerabilities, some of which are linked to the profound demographic change already affecting our societies and communities across Europe. This double challenge must help shape the way we think about healthcare, welfare, public budgets and public life in the next decades.”

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