Our View: Time to review total state control over Covid measures

The relaxations to Covid measures that came into force last week are welcome, though disappointingly cautious compared to other countries. The problem is that the government is lifting restrictions at its own pace and on its own terms – not due to public pressure – so the measures are becoming normalised.

Officials and health experts have already given themselves permission to bring restrictions back in the autumn (or earlier) if they deem it necessary. Meanwhile, the public is tired of Covid and just wants a few months’ respite, fatalistically hoping that the virus will keep getting weaker and the pandemic will be over.

Will a new variant – which is surely on the way – be more deadly? It’s quite possible. The flu virus, for instance, doesn’t keep getting weaker but fluctuates in severity from year to year. Omicron, which is mild, was an unexpected variant that had little in common with its predecessor Delta; the next variant may have little in common with Omicron. Also, Omicron is mild in a very specific way, in that it doesn’t spread to the lungs. A variant which did spread to the lower airways could cause huge problems, even if theoretically ‘mild’.

Let’s assume that Covid is here to stay. Let’s also assume that cases and hospitalisations will go up in October (or earlier). Does that mean we have to accept the return of masks, SafePasses and other restrictions, giving the state permission to limit our freedoms in the name of public health, potentially forever?

This is not a rhetorical question. Many people would indeed value safety above all else; they might even be in the majority. But there needs to be a proper discussion. Lockdowns and other restrictions were brought in as a temporary measure (‘two weeks to flatten the curve’) at a time when we didn’t know much about this virus. Two years later, we know enough to evaluate the situation. Do these measures work against Covid? Even if they do, are they the only way?

Take masks, for instance. The evidence of their effectiveness is sketchy. An article at the Brownstone Institute website lists 167 studies and pieces of evidence (most of them pre-pandemic) indicating that masks are ineffective – and may even be harmful – against a respiratory virus. Mask advocates can presumably find other studies suggesting the opposite, but still: that’s pretty mixed science on which to mandate something.

And what about the SafePass? Does proof of vaccination make any difference? No-one thinks the vaccines will stop you catching Covid anymore, but apparently they help – though no-one seems to know how much. Some studies indicate the same viral load between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. Others suggest that the vaccinated transmit less. They do seem protected against severe illness – but that’s individual protection, and no reason to restrict society in general.

In the end, we have to look at the bottom line. Mass vaccination hasn’t produced the desired outcome, quite the opposite. We have record cases, and indeed record deaths (January 2022 was the deadliest month yet). All we can do is speculate that ‘It would’ve been so much worse without vaccines’ – but then, looking at unvaccinated countries, we’d expect to see a real Covid massacre this past winter, and that hasn’t happened either.

The government seems to have found a perfect solution, mandating very visible and restrictive measures that increase its power, make it appear to be doing something, earn the gratitude of a fearful populace, and even bring in money from fines. Even if these measures worked, though, they’d be like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

If we’re going to get a few months’ break from Covid, that interval should be used to promote simpler, less authoritarian, more sustainable measures. The importance of ventilation should be stressed (even in summer, when many retreat into air conditioning). Nasal sprays and iodine mouthwash may protect against catching this virus, as with any virus. Cheap repurposed drugs should be tried, especially in the early pre-hospital phase when we’re currently doing nothing for patients (the one drug being prescribed, molnupiravir, is too expensive for general use). Losing weight, exercising, strengthening the immune system, all are vital.

Above all, hospital capacity should be expanded. It’s absurd that, after two years, it’s still considered ‘impossible’ to find more ICU nurses but entirely possible to shut down businesses and destroy children’s education. If the autumn comes and ministers start bleating about hospitals being overwhelmed yet again, it’s important to hold them accountable.

This is really a pivotal moment. Fear and panic have made it impossible to talk rationally about lockdowns, masks, distancing and (especially) SafePasses in the past two years – but the fear is finally subsiding. If restrictions simply come back along with Covid in the autumn, public health and the precautionary principle will have won a big victory over individuals making their own health decisions, and state control will be much more entrenched going forward.