Netanyahu set for comeback, says on brink of “big” election win (Update)

Israel’s former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to return to power in one of the most right-wing coalitions in Israel’s history, causing jitters among Palestinians and Arab neighbours who fear it could ratchet up tensions across the Middle East.

With roughly 70% of votes counted, Netanyahu’s conservative Likud and its likely religious and far-right allies were on pace to control a majority in parliament after Israel’s fifth election in less than four years.

“We are on the brink of a very big victory,” a smiling Netanyahu told cheering supporters at his Likud party election headquarters, his voice hoarse from weeks of campaigning.

Netanyahu’s alliance with far-right firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose Religious Zionism bloc is on course to become the third-largest party, has alarmed Palestinians and drawn concern among some allies, including the United States.

Netanyahu’s win will dismay Palestinians and some Arab states, not least because his right-wing government is likely to expand Israeli settler activity on the West Bank, but his hard line on Iran means Israel’s recently struck Gulf Arab alliances should hold firm.

“No doubt the result of such a coalition will increase the hostile attitude towards the Palestinian people and make occupation measures more extreme” Bassam Salhe, a member of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, told Reuters.

Hazem Qassem, a spokesman for the Islamist Hamas movement that controls the Gaza Strip, told Reuters: “It is clear that the Israelis are leaning towards more extremism, which also means aggression against our people would increase.”

Netanyahu, whose position appeared to have strengthened after early exit polls showed him with only a razor-thin majority, vowed to form a “stable, national government”.

The former premier, who in 2020 forged formal diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, said a government under his leadership would act responsibly, avoid “unnecessary adventures” and “expand the circle of peace”.

Though the landscape could shift as the remaining ballot count trickles in, the partial tally showed Netanyahu, who is on trial over corruption charges he denies, leading a bloc of four parties taking 67 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.

After a campaign dominated by worries over security and the cost of living, support for centrist Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s ruling coalition appeared to have collapsed, although Lapid stopped short of conceding victory and said he would wait until the final count.

Less than 18 months out of office, Netanyahu also said he would wait for official results.

A DIFFERENT WAY

The record 12-year consecutive reign of Israel’s longest serving prime minister ended in June 2021, when Lapid joined estranged Netanyahu ally Naftali Bennett to stitch together an unlikely coalition of liberals, rightists and Arab parties.

But the fragile alliance unravelled a year into its rule.

Netanyahu’s legal battles have fed the stalemate blocking Israel’s political system since 2019 and deepened the split between his supporters and opponents. But he said Israelis were thirsty for change.

“The people want a different way. They want security,” Netanyahu said. “They want power, not weakness … they want diplomatic wisdom, but with firmness.”

It remains unclear what position Ben-Gvir and fellow far-right leader Bezalel Smotrich may have in a Netanyahu-led government. But the strength of their ultra-nationalist Religious Zionism group was one of the outstanding features of the campaign as they brought it surging in from the political margins.

Ben-Gvir, who advocates expelling anyone deemed disloyal to Israel, is a former member of Kach, a group on Israeli and U.S. terrorist watchlists, and was once convicted for racist incitement, although he has moderated some of his more extreme positions.

His rise alongside Netanyahu has deepened Palestinian scepticism over prospects for a political solution after a campaign that unfolded during increasing violence in the occupied West Bank, with near-daily raids and clashes.