Cyprus proposal has little traction for EU

In the weeks since coming to office, the government – and the president himself – has quietly walked back talk of an EU personality acting as mediator in Cyprus peace talks. The idea having fallen on deaf ears at the European Council in March, the administration has now modulated it into one of using EU-Turkey relations to break the gridlock. But analysts see even this reformatted proposal as a long shot.

During the election campaign Christodoulides pushed his rhetoric about more active engagement by the EU bloc in efforts for a Cyprus settlement. It was his sales pitch, differentiating himself from the other candidates. He talked of seeking to get a ‘European personality’ appointed to a role akin to mediator. At some point, certain circles were even dropping the name of Angela Merkel, the former German Chancellor.

During his trip to France last week, the fuzzy proposal for greater EU involvement in the Cyprus issue was put to Emmanuel Macron. Here again, Macron’s response was a generic one – he pledged Paris would help toward a solution.

Meantime the government, through the spokesman, telegraphed that Paris was the first stop in a tour of European capitals that Christodoulides intended to visit to promote his spiel. Apparently, Berlin was to be the next stop, but nothing has been heard about this since.

Back home, the president’s pitch has taken flak from various quarters. Speaking at a Disy gathering on April 29, party leader Annita Demetriou questioned its realistic potential for success, and therefore its purpose.

“It will not be accepted that the European Union be used as an alibi for further inaction,” she said. “Nor that it be used as a pretext for making the partition permanent. Likewise unacceptable is trying to – or giving the impression we are trying to – downgrade the leading role of the UN in the Cyprus settlement process, outside the agreed framework.”

In a similar vein, Akel boss Stefanos Stefanou effectively dismissed the president’s proposal as hot air.

Going by the government’s commentary after the European Council in March which Christodoulides attended, one can infer that European leaders were not sold on the idea. The backtracking was evident in comments such as that Cyprus is “flexible” when it comes to the issue of EU involvement.

But is the proposal workable or feasible in the first place? And if not, what does that signify about Christodoulides’ handling of the Cyprus issue?

“The EU has no mandate to appoint mediators for conflict resolution, period,” says geopolitical analyst Zenonas Tziarras.

“There’s no precedent for this. Brussels would have to invent such a role or office for itself…and it’s unlikely to do that just for Cyprus’ sake.”

In that sense, he adds, the idea is a non-starter.

“But let’s say you somehow got around the legal hurdles. What next? The Turkish side has been explicit in that they don’t trust the EU, they don’t see the bloc as an honest broker.”

For Tziarras, a lecturer in the Department of Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus, the president’s proposal for more active EU involvement is “rather vague and needs to be further substantiated.”

Likewise, international relations expert Hubert Faustmann tells the Sunday Mail straightforwardly that the EU cannot act as mediator.

“They can be part of negotiations, in an auxiliary role as in the past with the Annan plan, but not directly involved,” he said.

“So right off the bat, you’ve got some major problems – the Turks are against the idea, the EU is unenthusiastic about it, and the same goes for the United Nations itself.”

Another source, who preferred to retain anonymity, tells us that European governments met Christodoulides’ pitch with bewilderment – to put it mildly.

Back to Tziarras, whom we asked to assess the president’s recent parleys in France. The analyst likened it to a feel-good exercise – Christodoulides got to show folks back home that he is ‘working’ his proposal with foreign leaders, while Macron played along for his own purposes, without actually committing to anything specific.

“Macron was happy to listen to Christodoulides’ proposal, and to seize the opportunity to declare once again France’s support to Cyprus – in line with his own narrative about France’s position within the EU and in terms of its broader international role in the eastern Mediterranean. That is to say, Macron’s narrative about a stronger France geopolitically, a key player in the EU’s strategic future.”

So what of the now watered-down version of the Christodoulides proposal – to leverage the EU in terms of its own ties with Turkey?

“I don’t think that even this ‘carrot’ – or incentives – approach would work,” opines Faustmann. “It’s unrealistic to expect the EU to expend political capital, trying to get concessions from Turkey, for Cyprus alone. If that’s the basic assumption underlying this strategy, it’s a flawed assumption. I just don’t see a breakthrough going down that road.”

If the president’s strategy isn’t feasible, as the analysts think, then what purpose does it serve?

Faustmann notes that since the ‘more active EU involvement’ formed one of Christodoulides’ main electoral planks, the president needs to do something to deliver on it – or at least be seen as doing something.

“But ultimately an unlikely endeavour,” he hastens to add.

For his part, Tziarras surmises that Christodoulides is probably seeking a tie-in with Europe’s stance vis a vis the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Maybe he wants to use the argument on the EU that whereas they’re keenly interested and invested in the Russo-Ukrainian issue, they’re not that interested when it comes to Cyprus.”

The other source, who spoke to us on condition of anonymity, put it somewhat more bluntly:

“It’s a PR stunt. It’s Christodoulides’ way of shifting attention away from Nicosia, and onto Turkey and the latter’s relationship with the EU. That way, he gets to show he’s willing to enter into dialogue with Turkey, but doing it cost-free while shining the spotlight elsewhere. As for whether he himself knows this is a waste of time, I can’t say for sure, but wouldn’t rule it out either.”