Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased slightly in September compared with August 2025, according to the European Central Bank (ECB).

Compared with the previous month, median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged, as did median expectations for inflation three years ahead and five years ahead.

Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months were unchanged, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months increased.

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time were both unchanged.

Expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased, as did expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead.

In September, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1 per cent for the eighth consecutive month.

Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased to 2.7 per cent, down from 2.8 per cent in August.

Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.5 per cent, as were those for five years ahead, which remained unchanged at 2.2 per cent.

Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in September.

Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023.

However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups.

Younger respondents (aged 18–34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35–54 and 55–70).

Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained at 1.1 per cent in September, unchanged from August.

Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months decreased to 4.9 per cent, down from 5.0 per cent in August.

Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.5 per cent in September, up from 3.3 per cent in August, with respondents in the lowest three income quintiles showing slightly higher spending growth expectations than those in the highest two quintiles.

Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained stable in September at -1.2 per cent.

Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead also remained stable, standing at 10.7 per cent in September.

As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (12.7 per cent), while higher-income households expected the lowest rate (9.4 per cent).

Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.2 per cent), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.5 per cent over the next 12 months, up from 3.4 per cent in August.

Compared with previous months, home price growth expectations were more aligned across income categories, standing at 3.5 per cent and 3.4 per cent for the lowest and highest income quintiles respectively.

Expectations for mortgage interest rates over the next 12 months increased to 4.6 per cent, up from 4.5 per cent in August.

As in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (5.3 per cent), while higher-income households expected the lowest rates (4.0 per cent).

The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months declined marginally, while the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months increased for the third consecutive month.