By Nikolas Xenofontos

In Cyprus, we have learned to view the Cyprus problem through the lens of history, justice and international law. We speak of invasion, occupation and violations of treaties – and all of this is correct. But if we truly want to understand how the world works, we must begin with a simple but uncomfortable premise: states are not driven by law. They are driven by interests.

A solution, if and when it comes, will not be the result of moral awakening, but of converging interests. Turkey will not change its stance because it “should”, but when it has a reason to do so – when the interests of a solution outweigh those of no solution. This will happen if it seeks to re-approach the West, if it sees energy benefits, or if it realises that a solution strengthens its geopolitical position. In such a context, a win-win agreement is not utopian; it is realism.

This was evident at Crans-Montana. There is a widespread perception that Turkey would never accept the abolition of the unilateral right of intervention. Yet at that moment it appeared ready to do so, provided there was a comprehensive agreement serving its broader interests.

Even if some form of guarantees were to remain, what really changes? Is there any case in history where a treaty, on its own, prevented an invasion? Treaties do not prevent wars. Interests do.

In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine without authorisation. In Cyprus, in 1964 and 1967, the United States prevented Turkey from invading – not because of legal obligation, but because it served their interests. In 1974, however, the same logic led to tolerance of the invasion. Not because international law had changed, but because interests had.

This is the lesson we refuse to see: the security of states is not ensured by papers, but by power relations and interests.

In a future solution, Cyprus could become an energy and geopolitical hub. For a period – perhaps 20 or 30 years – international interests could act as a stabilising factor. Internal tensions would not disappear. They would be absorbed.

But here lies the illusion: interests can create a state. They cannot sustain it forever.

The problem is deeper. It is a matter of identity. In Cyprus, education functions as a mechanism of identity formation. You are taught the history of another state as your own, you celebrate its anniversaries, you sing its anthem, and you grow up considering it natural to belong elsewhere. This is not neutral. It undermines the foundation of the state.

Geopolitical importance is not permanent. At some point, Cyprus may cease to be central. When that happens, the external “umbrella” will weaken. And the state will be left alone.

And then the question will be simple: can we live together?

Coexistence is not a legal concept. It is a daily experience shaped by symbols, memories and narratives. Can a common state exist when one community grows up with symbols that the other associates with fear or conflict? The issue is not whether these are right or wrong. The issue is whether they can form common ground.

If a shared political identity is not cultivated, the state will be either dysfunctional or temporary. Tensions will be inevitable, and no external framework will absorb them.

A solution may come from interests. It cannot be sustained by them.

You cannot build a common state when you cultivate identities that belong elsewhere. Identity is not merely cultural. It is a precondition for the functioning of a state.

The survival of a state depends on something deeper: whether its people truly consider it their own.

And that cannot be imposed through agreements.

It is built. Or it is never built at all.

Postscript:  

The solution described may not remain available forever. In the north, demographic change and growing influence from Ankara are transforming the Turkish Cypriot community. If a locally rooted identity is lost, the basis for a shared political identity may disappear – and the solution with it.

Nikolas Xenofontos is a student and writer focusing on political analysis and public discourse in Cyprus