Eurobank has emerged as the preferred pick among Greece’s four systemic banks after Euroxx upgraded its estimates and price targets for the sector, citing strong second-quarter results, improved earnings forecasts and a more favourable interest-rate environment.

In its latest report, whose findings were shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney, the brokerage retained an Overweight recommendation for all four banks and raised its price targets by about 20 per cent on average.

Eurobank received the largest increase in implied upside, with its price target raised to €6.30 from €5.30, representing potential gains of 32 per cent.

The target for the National Bank of Greece was increased to €22 from €19.40, implying 26 per cent upside.

Alpha Bank’s target rose to €5.80 from €5.20, with potential upside of 23 per cent, while Piraeus Bank’s target increased to €13 from €11, implying a 21 per cent return.

Euroxx argued that Greek banks could now justify trading at a premium to their European peers, rather than the discount currently reflected in their valuations.

The brokerage said Greek lenders were benefiting from stronger credit expansion, a more supportive macroeconomic backdrop, higher returns on equity and more attractive shareholder distributions than their European counterparts.

On this basis, Euroxx estimated that the Greek banking sector could warrant a premium of about 15 per cent to European banks.

It placed fair value at about 13 times expected 2027 earnings, compared with current sector valuations of around 11.3 times expected 2026 earnings, 10.2 times 2027 earnings and 9.2 times 2028 earnings.

Returns on tangible equity across the sector were forecast to rise from 15.6 per cent in 2026 to 16.4 per cent in 2027 and 16.9 per cent in 2028.

Euroxx also raised its earnings forecasts by a mid-single-digit percentage following the second-quarter results.

The brokerage estimated that net profits across the sector could grow at an average annual rate of about 10 per cent through to 2028.

Credit expansion remained the main growth driver, with corporate banking continuing to generate demand for new lending while early signs of a recovery were also emerging in residential mortgages.

The stronger lending volumes were expected to help offset gradual pressure on net interest margins as the interest-rate cycle changed.

Future growth was not expected to depend solely on net interest income, with higher fee income and other non-interest revenue identified as strategic priorities for the sector.

Euroxx said healthy growth in commissions could complement lending expansion and help keep profitability at elevated levels.

Eurobank stood out because of its relatively low earnings valuation and strong regional presence, according to the brokerage.

The bank was valued at 11 times estimated 2026 earnings, 9.9 times 2027 earnings and 8.8 times 2028 earnings.

Its return on tangible equity was forecast to increase from 16.5 per cent in 2026 to 16.9 per cent in 2028.

The National Bank of Greece was expected to record the highest return on tangible equity among the four banks in 2028, at 17.2 per cent.

Eurobank and Piraeus were both forecast to reach 16.9 per cent, while Alpha Bank was expected to record 13.7 per cent.

Although Alpha Bank’s projected return remained lower than those of its peers, Euroxx said it still had significant room for improvement from current levels.

The upgrades reflected the brokerage’s view that Greek banks were entering a period of sustained earnings growth supported by stronger lending, improving profitability and greater shareholder distributions.