Russian forces fired missiles at Ukrainian cities and landed troops on its coast on Thursday, officials and media said, after President Vladimir Putin authorised what he called a special military operation in the east.
Following are reactions from analysts and economists in response to unfolding events inside Ukraine and on their implications.
CRISTIAN MAGGIO, HEAD OF STRATEGY AT TD SECURITIES, LONDON:
“Currencies that will underperform the most are the most volatile – the Russian rouble and the Turkish lira…
“For the rouble – and not to mention the Ukrainian currency – the other risk is that liquidity simply drags out. Investors will not want to be involved at all.
“What’s going to happen, only Putin knows. As usual, Russian sources denied any intention to be militarily involved in Ukraine – and here we are, in the largest scale military operation in Europe since World War Two. Anything can happen from here.
“The safe-haven bid is exactly what is happening.”
JUSTIN ONUEKWUSI, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT LEGAL & GENERAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LONDON
“This puts central banks in a really tricky situation. A March hike from the Fed is being priced out (and) the number of Fed hikes this year being lowered because …it feels like it’s the wrong time to start taking liquidity out of markets.
“Central banks may have to look through an inflation spike though that means ultimately rate hikes could become substantially bigger. I’d say medium term inflation risks have increased substantially…
“Our view was 25 bps hike in the U.S. in March and the probability of that is definitely lower”
GULDEM ATABAY, ANALYST WITH ISTANBUL ANALYTICS
“Turkey potentially will be impacted most by the rise in energy prices…Sanctions are not expected to be announced for now but Turkey needs to abide by NATO’s steps.”
WU QIANG, INDEPENDENT POLITICAL ANALYST, BEIJING
“This is a very unfavourable situation that an unprepared China has been pulled into by Russia.”
“It is possible that China may lose its existing relationship with Europe, a friendly relationship, and that China and the United States may soon fall into a confrontation because of a quasi-alliance between China and Russia. And so far, China has not shown a great willingness to stop the war.”
TAKAHIDE KIUCHI, EXECUTIVE ECONOMIST, NOMURA RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO
“Sanctions would hit both Russia and the global economy hard. They would cause spiking oil prices, plunging stock prices and price-rises in safer assets such as the yen, derailing economic recovery in Japan and elsewhere from the COVID-19-induced slump. Russia taking control of Ukraine would set a bad precedent, sending worrying signals to geopolitical flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South and East China Seas.”
GEORGE KANAAN, HEAD OF CASH EQUITIES, BARRENJOEY CAPITAL, SYDNEY
“The market has been looking for an excuse to sell off and now they have a real one… They flick the switch when there is uncertainty like this and buyers go on strike.
“That is why we are seeing the market gap like it is. There is brinkmanship happening and who knows where it can go from here.”
CHRIS WESTON, HEAD OF RESEARCH, PEPPERSTONE, MELBOURNE
“There are no buyers here for risk, and there are a lot of sellers out there, so this market is getting hit very hard.”
VASU MENON, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC, SINGAPORE
“History shows that military attacks like this and geopolitical events will pass eventually if there is no major global economic impact. If this is so, markets will rebound after an initial sharp drawdown. Those looking to buy on dips should buy gradually and must take a medium to long term view.”
YUAN YUWEI, PARTNER, WATER WISDOM ASSET MANAGEMENT, HANGZHOU
“The simple strategy is to bet on a spike in inflation.
“That means buying oil and agricultural products, and shorting consumer shares and U.S. growth stocks.
“China will likely boost support to sectors, such as agriculture, semiconductors and new energy.”
KYLE RODDA, MARKET ANALYST, IG AUSTRALIA, MELBOURNE
“This is very good for gold, very positive for commodities broadly, especially oil. And stocks are going to keep falling in this environment because it’s very difficult to price these outcomes.”
HOWIE LEE, ECONOMIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE
“If Russia’s oil is kept off international trade by sanctions, Asia as a typical net-importer of oil will feel the heat from higher cost of energy imports.”
TSUYOSHI UENO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, NLI RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO
“If the United States makes concessions and agrees to hold high- or top-level negotiations with Russia, or the Iran nuclear deal is quickly agreed, making Iranian crude oil become available to the International market, the oil market will take a short breather.”
ROBERT RENNIE, HEAD OF FINANCIAL MARKET STRATEGY, WESTPAC, SYDNEY
“Oil inventories are already staggeringly low and Russia is such a major producer any sanctions that threaten supply would be hugely damaging. From an FX perspective, why the euro isn’t a lot lower is a mystery. It should be.”
DAN WANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, HANG SENG BANK (CHINA), SHANGHAI
“A war will trigger a food and energy crisis. Emerging-market countries, especially Turkey, Egypt and Lebanon, are highly dependent on wheat produced in Russia and Ukraine. These countries are fighting high inflation. A war will deepen the crisis. The poor are the biggest victims.
“But the war has limited impact on global trade, because apart from oil and natural gas, Russia doesn’t have supply chains that can impact the world, which is different from China.”