War to slash Ukraine’s GDP output by over 45 per cent, World Bank forecasts

Ukraine’s economic output will likely contract by a staggering 45.1 per cent this year as Russia’s invasion has shuttered businesses, slashed exports and destroyed productive capacity, the World Bank said on Sunday in a new assessment of the war’s economic impacts.

The World Bank also forecast Russia’s 2022 GDP output to fall by 11.2 per cent due to punishing financial sanctions imposed by the United States and its Western allies on Russia’s banks, state-owned enterprises and other institutions.

The World Bank’s Eastern Europe region, comprising Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, is forecast to show a GDP contraction of 30.7 per cent this year, due to shocks from the war and disruption of trade.

For Ukraine, the World Bank report estimates that over half of the country’s businesses are closed, while others still open are operating at well under normal capacity. The closure of Black Sea shipping from Ukraine has cut off some 90 per cent of the country’s grain exports and half of its total exports.