Our View: We can only hope Lavrov’s nuclear comments made for domestic audience

It was no coincidence that Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brought up the threat of nuclear war just before representatives of 40 countries were scheduled to attend US-organised talks in Germany aimed at stepping up defence assistance to Ukraine.

Lavrov told Russian state media that the risks of nuclear conflict were ‘considerable.’ The statement was described by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba as an unsuccessful attempt by Moscow at scaring the world off helping Ukraine.

This was supported by Lavrov’s comments in the interview. “Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy,” he said, the implication being that an escalation of the war by the West, through the supply of heavy weaponry to Ukraine, increased the risks of nuclear conflict.

“I would not want to elevate those risks artificially; many would like that,” said Lavrov, who insisted “the danger is serious, real, and we must not underestimate it.” It is fascinating how Lavrov refers to the risks, like a disinterested third party in the dispute, as if the country he is the foreign minister of has nothing to do with making the danger serious and real. Ukraine has no nuclear weapons, so it could not spark such a conflict.

The fact the issue was raised in an interview given by Lavrov, a highly experienced foreign minister, to Russia’s state-controlled media would suggest Moscow wanted its warning to be heard in the West – an escalation of the war could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. What is the probability this would deter the West from supplying Ukraine with more guns?

This was not the first time Moscow raised the possibility of the use of nuclear arms. In early March, less than two weeks into the war, President Vladimir Putin responded to the placing of sanctions on Russia by putting his nuclear arsenal on “special combat duty regime.” A few days earlier, he had warned the West that interference in the war would have consequences “never before experienced in your history.”

There has been interference in the war by Western countries, which may not have deployed troops, but have been supplying military aid to Ukraine, hence Lavrov’s reference to Nato fighting a proxy war with Russia. Back in March, several nuclear experts said Putin’s nuclear directive was for political impact, some insisting it was for domestic consumption. They were proved correct.

We can only hope that Lavrov’s comments were also made for political impact.