Speculation takes off over who will be next Archbishop (updated)

Speculation about who will become the next archbishop took off on Monday, following the results of the popular vote the day before, with some pundits giving Paphos bishop Georgios a clear advantage while others predict a tie between him and Limassol bishop Athanasios within the Holy Synod.

Sunday’s vote, with a turnout of 30.2 per cent, largely confirmed predications, producing the short list of three bishops who will now contest the throne within the Holy Synod.

Limassol’s Athanasios led with a wide margin with 35.68 per cent of the votes cast, followed by Georgios with 18.39 per cent and Bishop of Tamasos Isaias with 18.10 per cent.

Unless serious objections to these results are raised, the Holy Synod could convene as early as this coming Friday. Otherwise, the session to decide which of the three will become the new prelate will take place sometime between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day.

The Holy Synod comprises 16 bishops. In the first round of voting, in order to win outright, a candidate must garner a majority of the votes (8+1 = 9). If not, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated, and a second round held between the two remaining candidates. The same rules apply in the second round. If that still fails to yield a winner, he will be decided by simple lottery.

The candidates themselves can vote and may vote for themselves.

Since the throne will ultimately be decided by the alliances within the Holy Synod, the coming days will see behind-the-scenes horsetrading among the 16 bishops.

The consensus seems to be that Paphos bishop Georgios has the advantage, and will either be named archbishop directly in the first round or, if not, make it to the second round.

Georgios belongs to the group of nine clerics who supported recognition of the Ukraine Church as an autocephalous church. If the politics moves along these lines, he would be guaranteed to win the throne.

But even if this front has leakage, he can count on the six votes of the bishops of Trimitounda, Kition, Hitron, Arsinoe, Karpasia and Mesaoria.

Securing the support of the Bishop of Karpasia could be crucial for Georgios. It is said he might back Georgios in return for succeeding him at the Paphos bishopric, which would remain vacant if Georgios were to ascend to the archbishopric throne.

All members of the Holy Synod are technically bishops – the highest church rank. However, a two-tier system applies: Metropolitans and Bishops. The distinction is essentially an administrative one. Metropolitans typically administer larger jurisdictions and have full autonomy. Whereas Bishops – or ‘Episkopoi’ in Greek – do not possess full autonomy over all church acts and deputise for Metropolitans.

Within the Holy Synod, seven are ‘Episkopoi’ – the bishops of Karpasia, Arsinoe, Amathus, Ledra, Khitron, Neapolis, and Mesaoria.

The rules allow for ‘lesser’ bishops to get transferred to a different bishopric. By contrast, Metropolitans cannot transfer to another bishopric.

As for Athanasios, he has three votes ‘in the bag’ other than his own – those of the bishops of Amathus, Ledra and Neapolis.

And Tamasos Bishop Isaias, the outsider, is said to have the backing of just one other bishop – of Kyrenia.

The question is whether Isaias, realising he has little to no chance of winning, will side with Athanasios and lend him his votes. That would give Athanasios six votes in total – still not enough to beat Georgios.

However, some commentators suggest that Athanasios can muster not six, but eight votes – including that of Isaias.

If that happens, the first round of voting would be tied at eight votes apiece for Athanasios and Georgios.

The remarks by these two clerics after the polls closed on Sunday pointed to their different schools of thought. Athanasios stressed the results of the popular vote, hinting it would be strange for the Holy Synod to deviate from the will of the people. He also sought to downplay the give-and-take between the 16 bishops.

He pointed out that “the decision of our people, who had the courage to participate in the electoral process, must be respected. Since we got them to vote, we have to respect their decision.

“Certainly in the spirit of the process, some consultations can take place,” he said referring to the alliances that will be made within the Holy Synod.

And his backers were quick to defend him on Monday. The people voted and now expect their vote to be respected, the Support Group of Bishop Athanasios of Limassol said, thanking the 165,688 faithful who participated in the vote on Sunday.

It said the 35.68 per cent garnered by Athanasios is an indisputable clear message.

“The people voted and now expect their vote to be respected,” the group said.  “The Holy Synod has a duty to continue and unite our Church under the umbrella of the new Archbishop”.

For his part, Georgios pointed out that the Holy Synod and the people vote with different criteria.

“There is no first and second,” Bishop Georgios said on Sunday. “The people chose the top three. The people decide with different criteria than the bishops. Between Christmas and New Year a new Archbishop will be chosen”. The Holy Synod will meet on Thursday to set a date for the election of the new Archbishop.

Tamasos bishop Isaias said that the low turnout at polling stations “confirmed in the most extraordinary way how the public has discredited the Church, and the great obstacles and challenges we must overcome in order to regain its trust.

“For this reason, we are grateful for the 30 per cent of Christians who came to vote,” he said, adding he was sure the percentage would increase in the future, “if, first we all unite, people and Synod, face the future with faith, courage, determination and practical solutions”.

He added that the closer God’s people are to Christian virtues, “the more chances we will have to free our Cyprus from the Turkish conqueror”.