National Rally expected to win 205-230 seats, 289 seat needed for majority
France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party looked set to fall short of an absolute majority in parliamentary elections, recent polls showed on the last day of campaigning on Friday, though some politicians and pollsters urged caution.
An OpinionWay poll for business daily Les Echos saw the RN winning 205-230 seats in Sunday’s vote, ahead of the leftwing New Popular Front with 145-175 seats, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc with 130-162 seats. The findings were largely in line with other surveys released on Thursday.
For a ruling majority, 289 seats are needed in the National Assembly.
European lawmaker Raphael Glucksmann, one of the political leaders of the leftist New Popular Front (NPF), told RTL radio one should not take for granted the RN falling short of an absolute majority.
“Commentators and politicians already speak as if the RN had no absolute majority and congratulate themselves on their efforts to block it … I think that could demobilise voters and I am worried. There is a tidal wave in favour of the National Rally,” he said.
More than 200 candidates across the political spectrum withdrew their candidacies to clear the path for whoever was best placed to defeat the RN candidate in their district, a process known as the “republican front”.
However, much uncertainty remains, including whether voters will go along with these efforts to block the RN.
Leading RN figure Marine Le Pen told BFM TV that she still believed her party could score an absolute majority despite most of the political landscape teaming up against her movement.
French election run-off: How does it work
HOW DOES THE VOTE WORK?
A total of 577 constituencies are being decided in the election, one for each seat in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament.
Seventy-six lawmakers were elected in the first round last Sunday – including 39 representing the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies – leaving 501 seats up for grabs in the run-off.
This Sunday’s voting ends at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) in towns and small cities and 8 p.m. (1800 GMT) in big cities. At 8 p.m., pollsters will issue initial nationwide projections based on early partial results from polling stations that closed earlier in the day. These are usually reliable.
Vote counting is usually fast. However, if the result is tight – for example the RN is within a few seats of an absolute majority – the final result may not be known until the early hours of Monday.
WHO WILL WIN?
The RN topped the first round with a third of the total vote. Opinion polls forecast it will win more seats than any other party but that its margin of victory is shrinking and that it will likely fall short of a working majority.
The left-wing New Popular Front and an alliance of centrist parties supporting President Emmanuel Macron have withdrawn more than 200 candidates from second-round contests to bolster the chances of the front-running anti-RN contender in their districts.
Historically, a more fragmented field has favoured the far right, and the very latest polls – carried out after the candidate withdrawals – suggest the strategy is working and the most likely scenario is a hung parliament, with the far right missing out on an absolute majority.
That outcome would lead to the most political uncertainty.
WHAT TO WATCH?
One key question is whether voters will back the anti-RN candidate in their constituency, or if they choose to abstain or back the far right despite their preferred candidate’s recommendations to the contrary.
The RN and its allies will need to win 289 seats to secure an absolute majority and be able to implement their anti-immigration, eurosceptic agenda. The party has said its leader, Jordan Bardella, would be its candidate for prime minister.
In this scenario, Macron’s prime minister, Gabriel Attal, would resign immediately. Macron would name a new prime minister who would then be tasked with forming a government. Macron would have the right to veto a nomination if he deemed the person unfit for the role.
The RN has nuanced its stance on what it would do if it finished just shy of an absolute majority. Bardella had said he would not lead an unstable minority government, but the RN’s Marine Le Pen has opened the door to courting other lawmakers if it is only lacking a small number of seats.
WHAT IF THE OUTCOME IS A HUNG PARLIAMENT?
Attal has said the mainstream right, left and centrist parties could form ad hoc alliances to vote through individual pieces of legislation in the new parliament, rather than try to put together a coalition government.
On the left, however, some have touted the idea of forming a ruling coalition. Unlike Germany and many other European countries, France has never had a broad coalition government in its modern political history.
Either scenario would be likely to bring political uncertainty and slow down reforms.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE IS NO DEAL?
It is possible that none of the three groups – the far right, Macron’s centrist alliance or the left – will be big enough to govern alone, reach a coalition deal or provide the assurance it can run a viable minority government.
In such a case, France would risk political paralysis, with little or no legislation being adopted and a caretaker government running basic daily affairs.
COULD MACRON RESIGN?
Macron has hitherto ruled this out, but it might become more appealing to him if policy paralysis prevails. Neither parliament nor the government can force a president to resign.
WHAT WON’T HAPPEN UNDER ANY SCENARIO?
The constitution says there can be no new parliamentary election for another year, so an immediate repeat vote is not an option.
| Main parties* | Candidates elected in the 1st round | Candidates qualified for the 2nd round | Candidates who withdrew | Candidates on the 2nd round ballot |
| National Rally and allies | 39 | 486 | 3 | 483 |
| New Popular Front | 32 | 469 | 132 | 337 |
| Together | 2 | 337 | 83 | 254 |
| The Republicans | 1 | 89 | 2 | 87 |
“I get the impression that all this is designed to demotivate our voters. Fortunately, I know them and I know they’re highly motivated, so I really do say go and vote,” Le Pen said, adding: “I think we have a serious chance of having an absolute majority in the National Assembly.”
IFOP pollster Jerome Fourquet, who on Thursday forecast 210-240 seats for the far right and 170-200 for the left, told RMC radio one could not even rule out the leftwing alliance outpacing the RN in the end.
“The big unknown is the size of the republican front … will a leftwing voter cast a ballot for a rightwing candidate or a Macron camp candidate?”
At least 51 candidates and their supporters were physically harmed at the end of a tense four weeks since President Macron dissolved the National Assembly, Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said.
“Outbreaks of violence are to be feared on Sunday,” he told BFM TV, saying he decided to step up the police presence and ban a planned far-left demonstration at the National Assembly on the voting day.
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