Predict the weather for the coming year with the minallayia

Will it be a good year for rain or will the drought continue?

If you’d like to predict the weather for the rest of the year, August is the time to do it. All you need to do is look at the sky, notebook in hand, and jot down what you see – or don’t see.

Minallayia, derived from the Greek words ‘minas’ meaning month and ‘allagi’ meaning change, is a very old practice of weather divination passed down through generations.

Paraskevas ‘Skevos’ Papaparaskevas, 59, from Mathiatis, reads the minallayia and shares his findings with friends at the coffeeshop, which is where I met him.

“The minallayia start on August 1. The first three days are for August. August 1 corresponds to the first ten days, August 2 to the next ten days and August 3 to the period from the 21st to the end of the month,” Skevos explained.

August 4 represents September, August 5 corresponds to October, and so on.

Skevos learned what to look for from his father and grandfather. “You have to look for signs. Is it cloudy? Is it humid? Clouds mean rain, humidity means a little rain, and clear skies mean there will be no rain,” Skevos said.

Skevos reads both types of minallayia.

“Some people go by the new calendar and some by the old calendar. The new calendar starts on August 1, the old starts on August 13. Many read both and then compare for a final forecast,” Skevos explains to the Cyprus Mail.

So far, it seems that the winter will be mostly dry.

“I grow wheat and it’s useful to know what to expect,” Skevos said.

According to his observations, the last ten days of April will be rainy. May will start off dry, with light rain in the middle and more towards the end.

Skevos also keeps track of the minallayia in Greece. “They read the minallayia in Greece too, and from what I hear, it will be a very wet winter,” he added.

Anyone can read the minallayia. A cloud means rain, lots of clouds mean lots of rain, humidity means not so much rain and clear skies mean no rain. Morning represents the first ten days, noon the second ten days and afternoon the last ten days of the month.

Locals usually base the minallayia on both the Gregorian and Julian (new and old) calendars. The minallayia based on the Gregorian calendar began on August 1, and the weather through the winter is not very promising rain-wise. August 11 represented April, predicting rain for the last ten days. August 12 represented May, predicting dry weather for the first ten days, followed by rain. June and July look dry, with some showers.

The method based on the old calendar started on August 13. The first three days – August 13, 14 and 15 – represent ten days of August at a time. After that, each day corresponds to a month, starting on August 16 for September. There have been clouds every afternoon, suggesting the end of the month will be a bit wet.

On the other hand, meteorologists say minallayia predictions are not reliable. “It is a matter of luck. They give dates. If they are wrong, they keep quiet; if they are right, they celebrate,” meteorologist Eric Kitas told the Cyprus Mail.

Kitas stressed that he respects the tradition of minallayia but cautions against misleading others with their predictions. “Over the past few years, things are getting out of hand. Due to the publicity, they are trying to give more details and specific dates for sun, rain, wind and snow,” he says.

In the past, “people would say if it would be a rainy month or not and would never give such detail.” Kitas explained that “in the old days, people depended on their crops and it was useful to know when it would rain.”

Asked about his own long-term predictions, Kitas said, “The extreme summer and high winter temperatures were due to El Nino. Next year, on a global level, there will be lower temperatures as La Nina takes over,” he added.

As for this year, Kitas said, “The winter will be colder than last year.”