He is unlikely to ‘pay any price and bear any burden’ defending the freedom of other nations

Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election fair and square. His opponent, Vice President (VP) Kamala Harris, graciously conceded defeat by first congratulating him privately and then conceding defeat publicly in front of her supporters.

As president of the Senate it also falls on her to receive the votes certified by each state of the union the candidates received, add up the total for each candidate, and formally declare the result to a joint session of Congress on January 6, 2025. 

Once that is done Trump will take the oath and become president on January 20 for four years. Between now and then he is informally known as president-elect. He has the authority of someone who will shortly be taking the office of US president and Commander-in-Chief but not the power that goes with it, which President Joe Biden retains until January 2024.

As is well known what happened last time on January 6, 2021 was that Trump did not accept he lost to Joe Biden. On the contrary, he sought to persuade his running mate, VP Mike Pence, to refuse to declare that Biden had won.

Pence told Trump that it was in breach of a fundamental principle of the separation of powers for him to refuse to accept the results certified by the states because the constitution reserved certification of presidential results to the states.

The separation of powers is the lynchpin of the American constitution. There is separation of powers between the three branches of the federal government: the legislature (Congress) that makes laws, the executive that governs and the judiciary that adjudicates and interprets the constitution and the law.

But there is also separation of powers between the three federal branches and the States that form the Union. So when the state of Colorado decided to ban Trump from running for president last year on the ground he had incited insurrection against the American constitution, the US Supreme Court reversed the Colorado ban on the ground that under the constitution it was Congress not the States that had the power to ban a former president from running for office again.

Despite attempts to ban Trump from running for president and five prosecutions that could have incapacitated him from getting elected and two assassination attempts, Trump won so convincingly, he now commands enormous democratic credibility. Not only did he win all seven of the swing states, he also won the popular vote, and as if that were not enough his Republican Party won a majority in the Senate and is expected to retain control of the House of Representatives.

Add to that Trump’s appointment of three conservative judges to the Supreme Court when he was president 2017-21 that recently ruled he is immune from criminal prosecution for official acts, he is both legally and politically unrestrained, which given his maverick and unpredictable character means the world is in for a bumpy ride.

For anyone wishing to understand the thinking behind the Trump revolution Project 2025 – Mandate for Leadership, the Conservative promise, gives some structure to his crass campaign rants.  It is a lengthy document but the chapters on the presidency and common defence that includes the departments of state, defence and homeland security, provide a clear picture of the shape of things to come from Trump. 

Trump’s new administration will first deport all illegal immigrants – estimated to be as high as 10 million. Next, he will dismantle the administrative state built around the executive that it is claimed is a left-wing elite beyond the control of the president. The idea here is that the president should limit, control and direct his executive powers in the service of the people. Congress had previously passed laws that delegated powers to an administrative state around the executive independent of the presidency – an administrative state divorced from the values and aspirations of the common man and more aligned to fringe groups. Alternatives to abortion will be encouraged but it is not clear whether Trump will push for federal laws restricting abortion.

Freedom of expression under the first amendment is to be restored so that politically correct terms are no longer imposed in the education system or in government communications or the police and the armed forces. Expressions such as sexual orientation, gender equality, diversity, and reproductive rights, to name a few, that allegedly pervade the group think of the left, will be removed from the lexicon of government.

The conservative diagnosis of the ills that befell America since the end of the era of Ronald  Reagan is that the traditional pillars of marriage and the family have been eroded and distorted by woke culture and Trump has been elected to restore family values, which is bit rich for a boastful philanderer like Trump, although by all accounts he is a good father.

Woke is an African American word meaning being aware of racism and sexism which has been caricatured by the conservative right to mean ludicrously politically correct policies that deny the biological reality that there are only two sexes; alter children’s books; defund the police; and prevent Americans from driving petrol powered cars.

Unlike the UK the US does not have budget day on which the minister of finance sets out the government’s expenditure and how it will be funded in a speech to parliament. Apparently this is not done in Congress and Project 25 proposes that in light of the billions of dollars involved it should be subjected to rigorous public scrutiny.

Project 25 identifies China as America’s biggest enemy although Russia, Iran and North Korea are also mentioned – Iran has since been accused of plotting to assassinate Trump. For Europe, Trump’s commitment to Nato is a big concern as is the imposition of tariffs. Trump is unashamedly transactional in his relations with other countries, so he will extract a high price for providing American military support including nuclear cover to Europe.

As for Ukraine, all that can be said for certain is that Trump is not the sort of president who in the words of President Kennedy is prepared to “pay any price and bear any burden” in the defence of the freedom of other nations.

Alper Ali Riza is a king’s counsel in the UK and a retired part time judge