Back in the seventies, eighties and nineties, New Year’s Day editorials, like the messages of politicians and parties, expressed the hope that it would be the year of the settlement of the Cyprus problem – the year that all refugees would return to their homes, the occupation troops would leave and Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots would live happily ever after.
In the last 20 years, such sentiments are rarely expressed because we have become cynical about the Cyprus problem and anyone who maintains even a glimmer of hope is dismissed as a dreamer and an incurable optimist. Experience shapes public feelings and in the case of the national problem it has taught us that any hope of a breakthrough is unrealistic and unjustified, and anyone who claims otherwise could become a figure of fun.
The other issue that is at risk of being thought of with the same level of cynicism is the supply of natural gas, which has been marked by a consistent failure over the years to meet this objective. Every attempt to import natural gas has been a spectacular disaster, the latest being the Vasiliko gas terminal, the contract for which was unceremoniously terminated some months ago, even though the initial target was for it to be up and running by the end of 2023.
We are not back to square one, as half the work on the terminal has been done and we have taken delivery of the floating, storage, regasification unit (fsru), which is now undergoing the required technical checks in Malaysia. It would not be unrealistic or a case of wishful thinking, therefore, to claim that 2025 could be the year Cyprus will finally manage to import natural gas and reduce the carbon emissions of its power stations. After two decades of failure, the conditions exist for a breakthrough, even though nobody could rule out the possibility of something going wrong.
It is up to the government to ensure nothing goes wrong by treating the import of natural gas as its number one policy objective for 2025. Drilling by oil companies, set to start this year, trilateral energy agreements of no practical import and fears of Turkey and Syria agreeing an EEZ that threatens Cyprus’ EEZ should be secondary concerns. The government’s focus must be on importing natural gas, which it has complete control over and can achieve. While drilling for natural gas is important, it could take years before it is extracted and marketed and – as we have found out – we are not in control of what happens.
We are, however, in control of the process for importing natural gas and the government must make it happen in 2025. The economy is doing well and forecasts for this year are positive so the focus must be on natural gas. This is the biggest test for the government in 2025 and success would give it something to boast about. It would have succeeded where all other governments had failed.
Happy New Year.
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