Citi has raised its target price for Alpha Bank to €5.30 from €4.70 following the Greek lender’s strong second-quarter results, while retaining its buy recommendation for the shares.

Based on Alpha Bank’s closing share price of €4.55 on August 7, the revised target implies 16.5 per cent upside, which rises to a total potential return of 19.1 per cent when factoring in the expected 2.6 per cent dividend yield, according to the investment bank’s report, the findings of which were shared by Greek business outlet Newmoney.

The upgrade reflects both an improved earnings outlook and a lower required return being used by Citi in its valuation of the bank.

Citi has raised its estimate for Alpha Bank’s underlying earnings per share by 2 per cent for 2026 and by 1 per cent for 2027, while leaving its 2028 forecast unchanged.

At the same time, the investment bank has lowered its estimated cost of equity to 10.4 per cent from 11 per cent, a change that has a positive impact on its valuation of the lender.

Citi’s revised forecasts point to a continued improvement in Alpha Bank’s financial performance over the coming years.

Adjusted net profit is now expected to reach €915.5 million in 2026, rising above the €1 billion mark in 2027 to €1.02 billion and reaching €1.09 billion in 2028.

Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at €0.41 in 2026, €0.47 in 2027 and €0.51 in 2028.

A key driver of the expected improvement is continued growth in revenue, particularly net interest income and fees.

Net interest income is forecast to rise from €1.61bn in 2025 to €1.74bn in 2026, before approaching €2bn by 2028.

Fee income is expected to show even stronger growth, increasing from €501m in 2025 to an estimated €622m in 2026 and €721m in 2028.

The forecasts also point to continued expansion of Alpha Bank’s lending and deposit base.

Customer loans are expected to increase from €44.2bn in 2025 to €47.3bn in 2026 and more than €53bn by 2028.

Deposits are forecast to rise from €55.1bn in 2025 to €59.1bn this year and €64.2bn in 2028.

At the same time, asset quality is expected to remain strong, with the non-performing loan ratio forecast to decline to 1.7 per cent in 2026.

Citi’s €5.30 target price is based on assumptions of a sustainable return on tangible equity of 13.2 per cent, a cost of equity of 10.4 per cent and a long-term growth rate of 4 per cent.

The investment bank also sees significant variation in the potential valuation depending on how the bank’s performance develops.

Under its positive scenario, Citi estimates that Alpha Bank’s valuation could reach €6.90 per share.

Under a negative scenario, however, the valuation could fall to €2.75 per share.

The latest assessment follows Alpha Bank’s first-half results and reflects Citi’s view that the bank has entered a stronger earnings trajectory.

The combination of upgraded earnings forecasts and a lower cost of capital has created additional upside potential for the shares, according to the analysis.

Citi’s revised valuation therefore points to a more favourable outlook for Alpha Bank, supported by stronger profitability, growing lending and fee income, expanding deposits and continued improvement in asset quality.