The European Union must reach an agreement on its next multiannual financial framework, its long-term budget for the period covering the years between 2028 and 2034, by the end of this year, presidential press office director Victor Papadopoulos said on Friday.

“It is imperative that an agreement be reached in November or December, because of the elections in France. If it is not, [French President Emmanuel] Macron has already said that if it goes beyond December, he will not negotiate, and it will be the next French president who negotiates,” he told the Cyprus Mail.

Macron had told the leaders of the other 26 EU member states that France cannot agree to any budget deal after December, in view of the presidential elections being held in the country in April next year, as such a thing would be “too politically sensitive”.

As such, with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen leading in the polls ahead of those elections, efforts have been heightened with the aim of striking a deal while Macron is in office and open to negotiations.

European Council President Antonio Costa said on Friday that he believes such a thing is possible, with an extraordinary European Council summit having been called for November 26 and 27.

“I am working to have an agreement in the November council. The basic budget should be agreed in November, and it’s possible to agree in November,” he told Brussels-based new website Rapporteur, before adding that he aims “at least to find the common landing zone”.

Spanish elections scheduled for three days after European Council summit

However, matters on this front may be complicated by the fact that Spain is set to hold snap parliamentary elections on November 29, just two days after the end of the summit.

Of this, President Nikos Christodoulides had told Politico last week that “everybody used to understand that we need to finish a political agreement by the end of the year”, but that “now, with the situation in Spain, elections there”, this may be less possible.

Should an agreement not be reached by the end of this year, matters may go to the wire, with the next French president unlikely to take office in mid-May, and it is possible that the winning candidate there, should it be Marine Le Pen, could change the complexion of the negotiations and the overall political character of Europe.

Elections will also take place in Poland in November at the latest, meaning there could be a mad dash to the finish for those negotiations, particularly with the legislation which follows the agreement typically taking months to negotiate with the European Parliament, draft and ratify.

Next MFF may be 10% smaller than European Commission’s proposal

For the last multiannual financial framework, EU leaders reached an agreement in July 2020 – five months out from its implementation – before then negotiating with the European Parliament until November, with member states then finalising their adoption of the agreed budget on December 14, 2020, and the parliament voting it through two days later.

This time around, Christodoulides had said that the overall multiannual financial framework may be more than 10 per cent smaller than the initial proposal submitted by the European Commission in July last year.

The commission had initially proposed a budget worth €1.76 trillion, which the Cypriot government reduced to €1.73 trillion when it submitted its own proposal in June while it was the holder of the Council of the EU’s rotating presidency.

A little under two weeks ago, the Irish government, which succeeded it, proposed a budget which amounted to only €1.62tn – an eight-per-cent cut on the commission’s proposal.