Christodoulides still ahead but lead reduced in latest poll

Independent candidate Nikos Christodoulides continues to lead by a significant margin, although this lead has been reduced, ahead of next month’s presidential elections, according to an opinion poll for the CyBC.

According to the poll, presented on Thursday night, Christodoulides would take 29.5 per cent, followed by Disy’s Averof Neophytou with 21.5 per cent and Akel candidate Andreas Mavroyiannis on 20.5 per cent.

Christodoulides was down by half a percentage point since the last poll conducted for CyBC in October, while Neophytou was up by one percentage point, the difference between the two being reduced form 9.5 to 8 percentage points.

Mavroyiannis was the biggest climber compared to the earlier poll, having gained 3 percentage points and moving very close to Neophytou.

Achilleas Demetriades led the three independent candidates in with 3 per cent, the same percentage taken by Elam candidate Christos Christou. The other two independents, Giorgos Colocassides and Constantinos Christofides recorded 1 per cent.

Carried out from December 28 to 30 and January 2 to 7, the survey polled 1,250 persons aged over 18.

The poll showed that interest in the presidential elections remained at approximately the same levels –67 per cent are ‘interested’ now, compared to 63 per cent in October.

Regarding people’s intention to participate (vote), 85 per cent said definitely/probably, compared to 81 per cent in November 2022, 84 per cent in October 2022.

Gauging how confident people were of their vote, 66 per cent said they were ‘certain’ – unchanged since November. And 23 per cent were uncertain, while 11 per cent offered no opinion either way.

Among those leaning toward a particular candidate, 73 per cent said they were ‘certain’ to vote for Christodoulides, while 26 per cent were ‘uncertain’ about him. For Neophytou, the respective numbers stood at 85 per cent and 14 per cent; and for Mavroyiannis, the figures were 84 per cent and 12 per cent.

Asked to assess the candidates’ attributes, 30 per cent said that Christodoulides is ‘convincing’. Neophytou’s strongest trait was ‘dynamic’ (32 per cent of respondents felt that way), and Mavroyiannis’ prime attribute was that he has ‘integrity’.

On whether the candidates would keep their promises if elected, 22 per cent of respondents thought so of Christodoulides, 20 per cent of Neophytou, and 19 per cent of Mavroyiannis.

Asked when they typically decide whom to vote for, 50 per cent said ‘well before the elections’, 18 per cent ‘a few weeks before the elections’, 11 per cent ‘a few days before’, and 10 per cent ‘at the last moment, even on election day’. And 11 per cent said they would not cast a vote. Interpreted, the percentage of those already having made up their minds was 68 per cent.

And asked which candidate they think likeliest to make it through to the second round, 75 per cent said Christodoulides, 64 per cent picked Neophytou, and 43 per cent said Mavroyiannis.

On the second-round scenarios – a staple of surveys – 42.5 per cent would vote for Christodoulides, and 28.5 per cent for Neophytou in that particular pair-up. Here, Christodoulides’ numbers dropped just one per cent since November, whereas Neophytou gained 4.5 per cent.

In a Mavroyiannis versus Christodoulides matchup, the former would get 27 per cent, the latter 45.5 per cent.
And an Neophytou versus Mavroyiannis contest would be a dead heat – 34.5 per cent to 33 per cent.

Lastly, asked who they think will become the next president, regardless of their own personal preferences, exactly half of the respondents said Christodoulides. Just 27 per cent thought Neophytou will be elected, and Mavroyiannis only had a 9 per cent chance.