Support for party-backed independent Nikos Christodoulides has slipped in the past month while the other two main candidates, Disy’s Averof Neophytou and Akel-backed Andreas Mavroyiannis have gained, according to the latest and final CyBC poll ahead of the February 5 presidential elections.
The poll, released late on Friday showed that in October 2022, Christodoulides support clocked in at 30.5 per cent but has slipped steadily and now stands at 26.5 per cent in the first round. It was 29.5 per cent at the beginning of the year. He is still leading the pack however but 4.5 per cent are still undecided as to how they will vote in the first round.
While support for Christodoulides has waned somewhat, Neophytou has gained over three points since October coming in at 22.5 per cent from 19 per cent. At the beginning of January his support stood at 21.5 per cent for the first round. Mavroyiannis also gained four points since October when his support was 17 per cent for the first round. It now stands at 21 per cent, from 20.5 per cent at the start of the year.
Four other candidates, Elam’s Christos Christou, and three independents Achilleas Demetriades, Giorgos Kolokasides and Constantinos Christofides also made minor gains of 0.5 per cent. Support for Demetriades and Christou stands at 4 per cent each.
Of the 1,644 people polled by Cypronetwork on behalf of CyBC between January 13 and 23, regardless of voting preference, 51 per cent of those surveyed think Christodoulides will come out the overall winner from the second round on February 12. Some 30 per cent see Neophytou winning but only 8 per cent Mavroyiannis with 11 per cent having no opinion.
In terms of the second round, support for Christodoulides shows him coming in at 32 per cent, Neophytou with 27 per cent, Mavroyiannis 25.5 per cent Demetriades and Christou with 5 per cent, Kolokasides with 25. Per cent and Christofides 2 per cent.
Asked who was most likely to get through to the second round, the poll found that 74 per cent think Christodoulides will make it through, Neophytou 66 per cent and Mavroyiannis 37 per cent.
A second-round battle between Christodoulides and Neophytou, would see the former come out with 40 per cent and the latter with 29.5 per cent. This would rise to 43 per cent for Christodoulides if he came up against Mavroyiannis, who would garner only 26 per cent. The poll indicates that in a face-off between Mavroyiannis and Neophytou it would be neck-and-neck with 32.5 per cent each. This indicates that Christodoulides’ voters would flock to the Akel-backed candidate.
In terms of party support, within ruling Disy, 60 per cent of members support Neophytou and 24.5 per cent Christodoulides, a former party of its inner circle. It also appears Demetriades has secured some Disy voters (3.5 per cent) and Elam’s Christou (3.5 per cent). Mavroyiannis also has support within the party at 2.5 per cent.
Within Akel, Mavroyiannis’s support is 78.5 per cent but 12.5 per cent will also gravitate to Christodoulides and 2.5 per cent to Demetriades.
Being backed by centre-right Diko, socialist Edek and Depa, Christodoulides has majority support within these three parties but also within Elam, which is running its own candidate. While Christos Christou has 50 per cent of his party’s support, Christodoulides has 21 per cent and even Neophytou has 13 per cent. Diko, Edek and Depa also have a significant number of supporters for not only Christodoulides but also Neophytou.
To other election-related questions, 76 per cent of those polled said the candidates’ stance on the Cyprus issue would be a factor in their choice. The candidates seen as most engaged on the Cyprus issue were Neophytou according to 86 per cent, and Mavroyiannis and Demetriades according to 81 per cent.
Some 69 per cent say they have an interest in the elections, up from 63 per cent in October, while 88 per cent said they might vote compared to 68 per cent who say they will definitely be voting. Eight per cent said they will definitely not be voting.
To a question on the impact of television debates, 45 per cent said they were of little importance and 52 per cent said they would not be swayed from their choice of candidate by a TV debate.