Neophytos Loizides, professor in international Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent, was interviewed by the Cyprus Mail on the main questions of regional security for Cyprus
How do you present the security situation in Cyprus to someone who has never heard of it before?
We often start our discussions of any security issues by presenting the paradox: “There is a country in the world where a NATO country occupies an EU member state and where the UK polices the buffer zone subject to a Russian UN Security Council veto. This is Cyprus.” We have been in a perilous stalemate for too long, but it is unlikely for us to remain unaffected by changing geopolitics. Just last month, two frozen conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Gaza have seen unprecedented escalations. We were taken by surprise and Cyprus could be next if some advanced strategic action does not take place.
What is NATO’s role in the conflict?
NATO provides its member states with access to security guarantees, technology, and cutting-edge training to defend themselves. Turkey (a non-EU) country is a member of NATO while Cyprus (an EU country) is not part of NATO. In 1974 Turkey employed its then NATO equipped and trained troops to partition the island leading to massive numbers of Greek Cypriot displaced. When violence ended, Turkish Cypriots won more land in proportion to their community size but failed to gain recognition by any country other than Turkey. Greek Cypriots retained sole legal control of the Republic of Cyprus but likewise they failed to maintain any long-term sanctions against Turkey due to the latter’s importance for the alliance, thus today’s decades long stalemate.
Is there a question of NATO accountability?
NATO has been part of the problem but as the only major security provider in Europecould also be part of the solution. The history of the conflict and more recent escalations in the Cypriot maritime zone and against UN personnel in the buffer zone raise serious accountability issues for NATO itself, its officials and members alike. You can easily locate online information of Turkish military officials serving NATO (in highly celebrated positions) and then taking their next post in leading the (illegal) occupation of an EU country. This is the largest scandal in my view in the alliance’s history. But focusing only on the problem without seeking out solutions is counter-productive. NATO could make up for this by contributing to the peace settlement in Cyprus. In fact, our most recent simultaneous public opinion survey of Greek and Turkish Cypriots has shown that despite past suspicions the involvement of international organizations such as NATO will catalyse cross-community majority support for the UN Guterres framework aiming for a federal arrangement. A peace settlement in Cyprus will also enable the transfer of Israeli and Cypriot natural gas to the EU markets. Following the recent Middle East and Caucasus crises the option of a pipeline via Cyprus or in the short-term the cheaper option of an electricity connector appear to be essential steps for continental and global energy security.
What is the role of the UK?
The UK is a security guarantor in Cyprus (along with Greece and Turkey), one of its two military bases forms part of the line dividing the two sides while British troops hold the most decisive role in the UN peacekeeping force. The Sovereign Base Areas (SBA) are part of the colonial legacy and their legal status has gradually become questionable and politically difficult to justify. However, the Republic of Cyprus has opted instead to work a pragmatic relationship with the UK and not to politicize the issue in the post-Brexit referendum talks. A Cypriot SBA veto has never been in the agenda but the relationship might sour as the stalemate goes on and if the UK becomes an alternative arms supplier for Turkey after US Congress vetoing the acquisition of fourth generationUS F-16 fighters (an issue linked to Sweden’s NATO membership).
Is the UK arming Turkey?
The UK has been involved in supporting Turkey to develop engines for its fifth-generation stealth fighter. An advanced engine is necessary to accommodate stealth fighter characteristics (currently the KAAN prototype uses Turkey’s fifty-year old F1-6 fighter engines which are sub-optimal). If indeed Turkey develops KAAN with British support and transfer of intellectual property, the plane will be sold around the world to any country. The UK itself compared to other western countries is probably the most reckless proliferator of advanced military technology. Even if Greece and Cyprus do not do anything in response, these actions undermine US and EU policies towards Turkey and will inevitably cause reactions by allies most likely France, Israel and the United States itself including the Congress.
How would Cyprus be affected by the Hamas invasion of Israel?
The most likely scenario is the intensification of refugee crisis from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Depending on the depth of the military confrontation these will add millions of people fleeing their homes (adding to those affected by natural disasters recently in Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan and Libya). Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Syria might enter into a war with Israel and this might see the west supporting militarily Israel through the bases in Cyprus and Crete. Hezbollah has the capacity to retaliate citing self-defence. New miliary technologies allow now for longer range weapons and this in return will put Cyprus,Limassol in particular under risk. It could also re-open the question of SBA in the island and how Cyprus faces risks while failing to ripe any security benefits.
Would Russia use Cyprus to distract attention from Ukraine?
Russia will do everything to distract western attention from Ukraine (this has been a classic strategy since Soviet times). For the UN and the UK to keep peacekeepers in Cyprus (UNFICYP), Russia’s consent is required following annual vote at the UN Security Council. In simple terms, Russia holds a ticking bomb for NATO, the EU and the UK something that the former had no problem using last month against a historic ally Armenia in Nagorno Karabakh. It takes little effort to see the island as the hot button in the Eastern Mediterranean (next vote at the UN is only four months away in January 2024) paving the way for a convenient (for Russia) EU-NATO clash. It is questionable whether the various countries implicated understand the stakes in this complicated equation.
What can be done now in terms of strategic thinking?
The Cypriot stalemate requires preventive out of the box thinking that refocuses attention to creating a new momentum for negotiations and a political settlement. As shown in the conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East the cost of a renewed confrontation is multiple times higher than any needs to support financially a peace settlement (our own survey offers precise figures of how compensations could incentivise both users and owners of properties to reach mutually acceptable solutions). As mentioned above it is also essential for NATO to play the central role in the island as part of a comprehensive peace settlement (no Turkish army or guarantees but instead involvement of countries from NATO that will also protect both communities and Cyprus as a whole from third country threats). Western countries could also exercise influence to all sides to implement confidence building measures parties themselves have committed to in the past. There is no need to negotiate some of those as they have been agreed already in past talks. Examples might include the Greek Cypriots lifting any remaining Turkish Cypriot isolation measures while Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots permitting after 50 years the return of Greek Cypriot residents in Varosha (currently an abandoned city that Turkey has instead opened to colonization). Any military benefits even (continuous) membership to NATO itself should be linked to such commitments.
Neophytos Loizides is professor in International Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent. He was recently invited to speak at a panel in Nicosia organised by the Institute of Studies of Politics and Democracy (ISPD) a newly established policy think tank. His panel addressed questions of regional security, visions for a new relationship with the Turkish Cypriot community and the impact of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine
