Instability is increasingly an accepted norm in international life

By Farid Mirbagheri

‘Interesting times’ we live in as the Chinese proverb goes.

Two devasting wars, one in Ukraine and another in Gaza are ravaging human lives with a serious possibility of a regional escalation.

Global military expenditure in 2023 broke all records reaching above 2.2 trillion dollars. The migration attempt from south to north is greater than ever with thousands – possibly tens of thousands – having lost their lives in the attempt.

The world economy, having suffered a staggering 30 trillion dollars loss, or thereabouts, in consequence of the Covid pandemic, appears weak. And if the US economist Harry Dent is to be believed this year will see the most severe economic crash in recent times. The disorderly state of affairs in the world has also revived the old maxim of ‘might is right’ and instability is increasingly an accepted norm in international life.

There are more items on this appalling list of miseries but there is little need for more to convince us of the dire global situation. There are, however, certain developments and trends that could impact what lies ahead of humanity.

First among those is the US presidential elections in November. For all the political correctness, one cannot deny that during the Biden administration the world has tuned into a more dangerous place. Wars are raging in Ukraine and Gaza, and east Asia appears volatile. Resemblance to Obama’s presidency that saw the emergence of Isis, the devastation and civil war in Syria and Libya is alarming. A different track, be it by a Republican or a Democrat administration, is surely needed. If the incumbent runs for office again, one can only hope for a Republican victory.

Secondly, the lingering Arab-Palestinian dispute, the root of much hostility in the region, has shown its lethal potential for armed conflict again. It is likely that after the current war international pressure for a settlement will grow. It will probably come as a result of multi-lateral negotiations, without the participation of radical Palestinians and arguably supported by international guarantees. Should Israel commit to a two-state solution, albeit with certain fine-tunings, a period of calm and stability can dawn on both the Israelis and Palestinians as well as the wider region.

Thirdly, Russia’s position in global affairs needs an overhaul. Aggression cannot be rewarded, but the security of a nuclear power with a massive military machine should not be overlooked either. Admittedly it will be very difficult to arrive at a settlement that could accommodate both those principles, but compromise will have to prevail. There is no military solution to that conflict, or else it would have probably come about by now. Warfare will have to give way to diplomacy before peace can have a chance.

Fourthly, the detachment of profit-making from wealth-creation is an economic malaise that devours the global financial network from within. Speculators take billions out of the financial system without reciprocal contribution to the economy, leading to a serious imbalance between wealth-creation and profit-making. This has caused several global economic crises and, if unchecked, will continue to do so with each crisis worse than previous ones.

Last but not least is the prospect of a fundamental clash between cultures that gained currency in the 1990s and early 2000s after the publication of Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations. Ever since, global developments seem to support his outlook. The West vs the Rest idea that grouped Islam, Orthodox Christianity and China against the Judeo-Christian world has been at-least partially substantiated in the last two-three decades. The United Nations, entrusted by the world to address the ensuing threat, is sadly ill-equipped to comprehend the all-important non-statal aspects of this trend. Consequently, it has failed to chart a way forward that could meet the challenges posed by civilisational discord.

It would be unrealistic to paint a rosy picture of the state of humankind at the moment. Monumental achievements in science and technology have failed to deliver the felicity that was expected from such advancement. Though we have managed to exercise much greater control in the external world, our inner demons continue to control us. Only if tranquil and peaceful within, can one hope to radiate the same without.

Professor SM Farid Mirbagheri is professor of international relations and holds the Dialogue Chair in Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Nicosia. He is also a senior consultant at Strategy International.