Countries everywhere have good reason to wonder where they fit into Emperor Trump’s plans

The dilemma that Europe (and this includes the UK) would have to choose between the world’s two largest economic giants would have seemed preposterous a few months ago. Until Trump’s rise to power, China’s emerging status as an economic superpower had little success in pitching itself as an alternative to the western value system that had developed since the end of WWII, under the leadership of the United States.

US President Donald Trump’s election has cast doubt over the path that Europe should take. While Trump’s antics, from his threats to take over Greenland, Canada and making Gaza a beach resort, to his tariff policy of rewiring the trading system would suggest that in theory, Europe could shift towards China, reality is showing that the actual decision will not be that straight forward.

Politically, Europeans will need to find a united voice to attempt such a momentous decision. Hungary’s Victor Orban will not play ball in such an endeavour. He barely manages to find common ground with the rest of the EU on the Ukrainian issue. But even if Hungary were somehow sidestepped in any attempt to shift towards China, there are many voices within Europe that are rightly anxious about China’s authoritarian tendencies. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni who apart from Orban is ideologically is closer to Trump than any other European leader has tried already on her recent visit to the White House to smooth things over with America.

Her pitch, clever as it was, to try to frame Trump’s “Make America great again” slogan into a “Make the West great again,” is unlikely to hold sway with Trump, for the simple reason he is not interested in a collaborative power sharing world. Anything that does not centre on his own authoritarian control in world affairs is anathema to him. Witness his recent interview in The Atlantic where he is quoted as saying that in his second term in office “I run the country, and the world.” Meloni should be careful in her overtures to the president, because, I fear, that as with many people that have tried to get close to Trump to promote their own agenda, he will always eventually do his own thing and cast you aside.

Canada’s recent example, the Liberal party’s electoral win putting Mark Carney in power, was based on the perception that he was the best person to stand up to Trump, and it is indicative that people are worried of US abusive influence worldwide. For sure, Trump’s explicit intention to make Canada the US’ 51st state left little room for doubt about the fate of the country. Countries everywhere have good reason to wonder where they fit into the emperor’s plans.

On the economic front also, Europe will have to change gear to boost its chances of standing up on its own. When the US unilaterally in 1971 acted to address what it – similarly to today – felt was the world ripping it off, with the closing of the gold window and the imposition of 10 per cent tariffs across the board, the US-European alliance was sustained primarily due to the common ground they had on addressing the threat posed by the Soviet Union. This does not appear to be a unifying position today. (The 1971 tariffs were lifted after four months, following an agreement of sorts on the realignment of currencies that was supposed to help the US eliminate its trade deficits).

This time the Russian threat is not seen in the same light on the two sides of the Atlantic. The US, on the other hand, clearly views China as its primary foe, something that Europe does not share to the same degree. More worrying is that the US views Europe with disdain, recognising on the one hand, it is the cradle of civilisation on which the US itself was based, but somehow looking at it as falling in decay through adopting social policies incompatible with the Trump ethos.

Yet, despite the flaws that do exist within the European family, Europe, as the Economist put it in its April 10 edition, is still the land of the free. I have said before that Europeans should take pride in the degree of social cohesion in their societies, that to quote from the publication’s Stanley Pignal ‘Charlemagne’ article: ‘Europeans have created a place where they are guaranteed rights to what others yearn for: life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.’

Europe, therefore, much like Canada, is in a pickle. Although it would love to be able to stand on its own two feet and preserve its way of life, realistically, Europeans deep down, understand they are not in the heavyweight economics league. They may have to pick a side. As with most ambiguous decisions of such significance, it may be that the decision will not be made actively, but rather will be a result of drifting towards it, slowly but inevitably.

Much will depend on how the US and China position themselves vis-à-vis Europe. China could for instance take a less supporting role of Russia’s war with Ukraine as a way to entice Europeans worried about their security. Alternatively, the US could adopt a more conciliatory tone and go for the “Make the West great again” idea. Even though this would not fit Trump’s view of the world, there are voices within his administration who are more amenable to this. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, one of the less controversial of Trump’s choices, and the person responsible in striking trade deals with the rest of the world, has repeatedly said that “America first” does not mean “America alone”.

Whether Bessent – arguably the adult in the room who convinced Trump to stop his public attacks on the Federal Reserve chairman, as it was creating havoc in the bond markets – manages to instill some sense of normalcy in US policy, or whether he will end up on the sidelines as many adults in the room before him, remains to be seen. (Trump couldn’t help himself not to take a light swipe at the Fed Chairman on Wednesday, at an event in Michigan to celebrate his 100 days in office. “I have to be nice,” he managed as he cut himself short).

What is clear though is that, unless America demonstrates tangibly that it respects the value of a cooperative world, it may find out that being alone is not a choice for her to make.