The de-escalation everyone had been demanding was achieved by the ceasefire brokered by President Donald Trump in the early hours of Tuesday. Early violations of the ceasefire that caused Trump to lose his temper in front of the cameras, swear and scold both countries publicly were a blip, as the truce appears to be holding. For how long, nobody can say, but if it can hold for a few weeks there will be a small opportunity for diplomacy to work.

At present a ceasefire seems to suit both Iran and Israel. Israel’s 12-day bombing of military and nuclear sites and the killing of top army commanders and nuclear scientists would have significantly weakened Iran, and exposed the ineffectiveness of its missile attacks, but whether the main objective – destroying its nuclear programmes – was achieved, remains unclear.  

President Trump said the nuclear facilities were “obliterated” after the US dropped its bunker-buster bombs on the underground nuclear facilities, but this seems an exaggeration. Nobody can say what damage was actually done to the Fordow facility, 100 metres under a mountain, while reports in the Western media suggest that Tehran had moved its stock of enriched uranium to another site before the US bombing. Israel has claimed Iran’s ability to build nuclear weapons would have been put back a couple of years.

The ceasefire suited Iran as it provided a respite from the relentless Israeli bombing, with which its air defences were unable to cope. Its retaliatory strikes in contrast were effectively dealt with by Israel’s Iron Dome defence system (with help from the US) with only a few ballistic missiles getting through. The difference in military power was evident and Israel was winning, which is why Iran was keen on a ceasefire. Even its firing of 14 missiles at an US air base in Qatar, as revenge for the US bombing, proved little more than a face-saving exercise. Trump subsequently said Iran had forewarned the US of the attack.

What happens now? Is it realistic for Trump to pursue a peace deal between Israel and Iran or will Washington focus on direct negotiations with Iran about its nuclear programme? Will Iran be prepared to engage in any talks from the position of weakness it finds itself in? Does Trump, whose gamble of bombing Iran last Sunday appears to have led to a ceasefire, have a plan for moving forward? And what are the plans of Israel’s prime minister who will be looking to drive his obvious military advantage home? Benjamin Netanyahu may have ordered a stop to the attacks on Iran to appease the US president, but for how long?

Everyone hopes this ceasefire will last, but as long as fighting continues in Gaza the much-desired de-escalation in the region, will be limited.