New long-term plans are needed to address its consequences

Wildfires, droughts, increased electricity demand, impacts on agriculture and tourism: with climate change they have not only become permanent but are intensifying. And making it even more challenging, the Mediterranean region is warming at a rate 20 per cent faster than the global average.

Over the last few weeks Cyprus faced a number of emergencies and in each case was caught woefully unprepared:

  • Wildfires: The consequences of the tragic disasters from the massive July wildfires are still unravelling
  • Drought: Lack of preparation resulted in temporary and costly solutions
  • Energy: We are teetering on the precipice of blackouts, but we are still gripped by inaction

In addition:

  • Agriculture: Climate change has brought about changes in precipitation patterns that have been disrupting agriculture and water resources. These will continue and intensify
  • Tourism: As temperatures and heatwaves become extreme, they will impact tourism in future summers

Systems and processes based on past experience and data are no longer sufficient to forecast and deal with the future. Climate change is altering conditions at an unprecedented rate, bringing with it new threats and challenges. The consequences are widespread, leading to more frequent, intense and extreme weather events, impacting temperature, weather patterns, sea levels and ecosystems.

Climate change is a very serious threat, and its consequences impact many different aspects of our lives. Underestimating or even worse, ignoring the climate crisis got us where we are. New long-term plans are needed to address its consequences.

Wildfires

Every year all government services rush to convince us that the messages of previous years were received and they are fully prepared to deal with wildfires. Only in June, the government spokesman stated that “this year’s fire season finds Cyprus more prepared and strengthened than ever”, advocating for the state’s operational readiness. This was reiterated just 24 hours before the fire broke out in Malia by the director of the forestry department who said “they are entering this year fully prepared.”

Sadly, the disastrous July wildfires showed how unprepared and uncoordinated those responsible to protect us were.

Blaming ‘difficult’ weather conditions demonstrates lack of understanding of climate change and provokes citizen anger. The weather conditions were not a bolt from the blue.

Europe, and even more so the East Med and Cyprus, have been experiencing increasingly alarming and deadly summer heatwaves. Climate change has been making these more frequent, more intense, impacting larger geographical areas. As heatwaves become more frequent and prolonged, the risk and severity of wildfires increases. These will not only continue, but are intensifying with time.

July’s wildfires clearly show that Cyprus lacks a functioning mechanism of civil protection, that pools and coordinates centrally resources, tools, knowledge and skills and ensures a more coherent response to natural disasters. In Cyprus, a plethora of government departments and services have some role to play but are not centrally coordinated, ending up in confusion and ineffectiveness.

The EU set up rescEU in 2019 – actually set up by Cypriot commissioner Christos Stylianides – that provides an additional layer of protection and coordination. Cyprus needs a centrally-coordinated civil protection system. There is an immediate need to establish a coordinating body that will take on the task of directing all those involved to ensure effectiveness.

The worst thing about this entire disaster is the lack of competent capacity in the relevant ministries to manage these fires. The same mistakes are repeated year after year.

There is an imperative need for long-term planning based on full knowledge and understanding of the impact of climate change and putting in place systems, infrastructure and policies fit for this future. Cyprus urgently needs to adapt.

Drought

More frequent and severe droughts have brought Cyprus’ water system close to collapse.

Improving water management and infrastructure, water reuse and increasing irrigation efficiency in agriculture can help, but will not be sufficient to compensate for climate-induced spiralling in drought conditions.

According to the FT, years of under-investment, fragmented policymaking, reliance on rainfall and lack of long-term planning have left Cyprus’ water system close to disrepair, forcing increasing reliance on expensive desalination. But that is not a panacea.

Water scarcity should have been expected due to the predictable impact of climate change on increasing drought frequency and severity, but it caught us unprepared. Cyprus is now paying dearly due to this lack of planning. Desalination is a costly solution, as are reactive rather than proactive policies.

Long-term planning accounting for climate change is lacking and has become urgent and essential if Cyprus is to become better prepared to deal with the impacts of droughts and water scarcity effectively and affordably well into the future.

Energy

According to the IEA, rising temperatures and incomes are boosting demand for cooling globally. Space cooling is now the fastest growing source of energy demand from the buildings sector, rising by almost four per cent annually, driving global energy demand up, especially in the summer.

Climate change is expected to significantly increase energy demand around the East Med, including Cyprus, due to increased cooling, electric vehicles and desalination needs, as well as more frequent disruptions to energy infrastructure.

The current reactive approach to the challenge, ie waiting until the last minute to act, has brought us to the brink of outages for both households and businesses at a tremendous cost to the economy. This has become a recurring phenomenon that reappears every summer due to the lack of long-term planning accounting for the impact of climate change on future energy demand.

With restrictive practices keeping renewable energy prices high, we have known for 15 years that only by switching electricity generation to natural gas will electricity prices comoe down significantly. Completion of the Vasiliko LNG import project is urgent but it is still bogged down due to indecision. The latest information implies completion by 2028/2029. A four-year delay equates to an additional €2 billion cost for consumers. A change of mindset, better planning and acceleration are required.

Planning for climate change

The Mediterranean region, including Cyprus, is particularly vulnerable to increased temperatures and droughts. These are expected to worsen as the climate continues to change. Extreme events are becoming the new normal and we must adapt to the changes they bring.

The recurring need for emergency measures in water supply, electricity and firefighting demonstrates a complete lack of planning and preparation.

Our universities and institutes are doing excellent research on the impact of climate change on the East Med and Cyprus. We must tap into this to develop targeted, realistic and sustainable climate change adaptation policies.

Cypriots are no longer satisfied with superficial words: they demand action, clear plans, seriousness and above all, responsibility.

Unprepared, without long-term plans, we move forward reactively, at the mercy of circumstances. Cyprus must plan long-term for climate change.

Dr Charles Ellinas, @CharlesEllinas is Councilor, Atlantic Council