Goldman Sachs expects the National Bank of Greece to make an interim distribution of around €220 million in the third quarter, despite management neither confirming nor ruling out such a move.

In its latest report, whose findings were shared by Greek business outlet Insider, the US investment bank stated that management had left open the possibility of some form of interim distribution following the bank’s second-quarter results, prompting Goldman to include an interim dividend of approximately €220m in its forecasts.

The expected distribution would come as the National Bank of Greece continues to pursue a policy of increasing capital returns to shareholders, with Goldman forecasting a gradual rise in the payout over the coming years.

Goldman forecasts a dividend of €0.59 per share for 2026, rising to €0.76 in 2027 and €0.90 in 2028.

Excluding share buybacks, the dividend payout ratio is expected to rise from 45 per cent this year to 48.2 per cent in 2027 and 51.7 per cent in 2028.

At the same time, Goldman has taken a more cautious view of the bank’s earnings outlook, cutting its earnings-per-share estimates by 3 per cent for 2026, 1 per cent for 2027 and 2 per cent for 2028.

The revisions come despite the investment bank recognising continued strength in revenues and credit expansion at the National Bank of Greece.

Goldman now forecasts earnings per share of €1.31 for 2026, €1.58 for 2027 and €1.74 for 2028.

The figures refer to reported earnings per share and should not be directly compared with the bank’s guidance for adjusted earnings per share of more than €1.40 this year, a distinction that is important when assessing the gap between Goldman’s forecasts and the National Bank of Greece‘s own guidance.

Despite the more cautious earnings projections, Goldman does not question the broader momentum of the banking group.

It expects the National Bank of Greece to remain on course to achieve its target of more than €3 billion in credit expansion, while the bank’s revised guidance for net interest income now points to growth in the mid-single-digit range.

Goldman also sees scope for further growth in net interest income as part of the increase in deposits has yet to be converted into lending.

The investment bank expects the bank’s CET1 capital ratio to stand at 17.2 per cent at the end of 2026, before gradually declining to 15.8 per cent by 2028.

The projected decline reflects the combination of rising shareholder distributions and organic growth in risk-weighted assets.

Goldman described the National Bank of Greece as the best-capitalised bank in the Greek banking system, while expecting it to make greater use of surplus capital through higher distributions and stronger credit expansion.

At the same time, it expects the bank to retain a capital buffer that could be deployed for potential strategic moves.

Goldman has raised its price target for the National Bank of Greece to €18.75 from €18.50, while maintaining a neutral rating.

The investment bank’s stance effectively recognises the improvement in profitability and the bank’s growing capacity to return capital to shareholders, while stopping short of a more aggressive upgrade to its earnings forecasts.