Our View: UNSG’s reports on Cyprus bleak but not entirely accurate

There is almost nothing positive in the UN Secretary-General’s latest draft reports on his Good Offices Mission and on Unficyp that are due for release this week. Irrespective of this, he recommends the extension of the force’s mandate for another six months until July.

Normally the UN tries to spin developments on the ground in a positive light to maintain some hope or illusion that a solution could still be out there.

Antonio Guterres did mention that at the beginning of the reporting period the technical committees were still working well together but in the second half of the period, they too had fallen prey to the political climate.

It was understandable that after the failure at Crans-Montana in 2017 that there would be a cooling off period where there would be no developments on the Cyprus issue but more than five years have passed and instead of even a glimmer of hope, the Cyprus problem has regressed by decades.

Guterres said a surge in hard-line rhetoric on both sides had led to increased rigidity while the prospects for a mutually agreeable settlement continued to fade.

“Sustainable peace in Cyprus can only rest on the basis of a solid reconciliation. As long as the two communities remain apart and rely on divisive narratives to formulate their understanding of the other, it will be extremely difficult to achieve such reconciliation,” the report says.

In addition, both sides appeared to be engaging in fortifying their respective sides of the ceasefire line and in some cases encroaching on the UN-controlled buffer zone. Relations between both sides and Unficyp had also deteriorated, Guterres said.

What the Secretary-General, in his quest to maintain equal distances from both sides, fails to address is that the formerly-agreed basis for a solution has changed. A consensus, which included the UN, that the starting point of all negotiations was to achieve a bizonal bicommunal federation no longer exists as far as the Turkish side is concerned. It wants talks to resume on the basis of recognition of the north and is seeking a two-state solution.

Guterres may think, and it would be hard to blame him in current conditions, that the Greek Cypriot side is merely paying lip service to a federal solution while running down the clock until partition becomes the only viable option, for which the Turkish side could be blamed.

But it would be fairer to acknowledge at this stage that it is the position of the Turkish side that has officially changed. Instead, the report merely states “the positions of the two sides remain far apart and both sides maintain their opposing views about the way forward”.

Given that the Greek Cypriot side will never agree to two states as a basis for new talks and the Turkish side will accept nothing else to return to talks there is no way forward.