Our View: This is the endgame of the Cyprus problem as we know it

Maria Angela Holguin, the UN Secretary-General’s recently appointed envoy for the Cyprus problem arrives on the island on Monday and will have her first meetings on Tuesday. Greek Cypriots had been pestering Antonio Guterres for the last two years to appoint an envoy, but he appeared to see no point in doing so, in view of the Turkish side’s objections and the apparent lack of common ground. How could there be a resumption of talks when the two sides’ respective positions on a settlement were diametrically opposed?

Neither side has moved from its position, with the Turkish Cypriot leadership unwaveringly backing its demand for separate sovereignty – that is, two states – and the Greek Cypriot leadership ardently adhering to the idea of bizonal, bicommunal federation, which it twice rejected when it was offered in the past. Even now, despite paying lip service to BBF and political equality, it is unclear whether President Nikos Christodoulides would accept the Guterres framework, which is seen as the ideal starting point, unconditionally.

Holguin, an experienced Colombian diplomat who had served as her country’s foreign minister for eight years and as permanent representative at the UN, will be aware of the task ahead and of the fact that some two dozen envoys before her had all failed to achieve the desired result. This was in no way a reflection of their abilities and skills, but testament to the lack of political will for compromise by the two sides, at different stages of the 50-year peace efforts. Nothing has changed, as Guterres noted in his latest report, in which he said, “the prospects of a solution that everyone can accept are gradually fading.”

If Holguin does not find some formula that would bring the two leaders to the negotiating table, in the next few months, these very slim prospects will vanish. The Turkish side had insisted that her mission should not exceed six months, which is not an unreasonable position, considering that if there is no agreement for a resumption of talks within this timeframe, it will certainly not be achieved after one or two years of consultations.

This is the last chance for a UN-brokered settlement, even though President Christodoulides gives the impression he considers the resumption of talks an end in itself. The reality is that there can be no resumption of talks without prior agreement on the type of settlement and a timeframe for reaching it. If the two sides fail to agree, it will signal the end of the UN effort to achieve a settlement. It took six-and-a-half years after the collapse of the Crans Montana talks for the UNSG to appoint a personal envoy (Jane Holl Lute was on a fact-finding mission), and it is extremely unlikely there will be another if Holguin’s mission ends in failure, a failure that would also lead to the withdrawal of Unficyp.

President Christodoulides must be aware he is entering the endgame of the Cyprus problem as we know it. He has repeatedly said that the status quo is unsustainable so choices will have to be made. He could easily blame Turkish intransigence if Holguin’s efforts lead nowhere, but as leader of the country he should also be thinking about the consequences of the continuation of the current deadlock, which would be out of his control, especially after Unficyp’s withdrawal, that would be a matter of time.

On Friday he unilaterally announced 14 measures that would give Turkish Cypriots access to a range of the Republic’s services. These measures are an attempted show of goodwill, ahead of the new UN initiative, but he would need to do much more than this to ensure Holguin’s mission does not end in failure, even if the Turkish side is eventually blamed for it.