Turkish Cypriot opposition political party CTP leader and former ‘prime minister’ Tufan Erhurman leads the way in the first poll of the year to ask Turkish Cypriots who they plan to vote for in this October’s leadership election.

The poll was conducted by CMIRS and asked a total of 500 people face to face who they would vote for.

Erhurman, who served as the north’s ‘prime minister’ between 2018 and 2019, polled at 34.5 per cent, with incumbent Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar in second place with 29.8 per cent of the vote.

The poll suggests that October’s election will be a two-horse race, with no other potential candidate polling in double figures.

Turkish Cypriot Nicosia mayor Mehmet Harmanci is in third place, on 8.2 per cent of respondents choosing him, while former Turkish Cypriot leader Dervish Eroglu’s chief negotiator Kudret Ozersay is in fourth place on eight per cent. ‘Transport minister’ Erhan Arikli rounds off the top five, with 5.2 per cent of voters intending to vote for him.

No other potential candidate received the support of more than five per cent of voters, though former ‘MP’ Gulsah Sanver Manavoglu, retired judge Emine Dizdarli, the north’s first female ‘prime minister’ Sibel Siber, former Turkish Cypriot leaders Mehmet Ali Talat and Mustafa Akinci’s chief negotiator Ozdil Nami, and Serdar Denktash, son of late Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash all having received small amounts of support.

Were Erhurman to be elected, the Turkish Cypriot side would likely return to negotiations based on a federal solution to the Cyprus problem, with his party the CTP in September having unveiled a five-point plan for Cyprus problem negotiations.

Those five points stipulate that all convergences found at Crans Montana in 2017 must be adhered to and that there be no going back on the issues agreed on, and that a solution be found on the basis of a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality.

They also stipulate that the negotiation process be “results-oriented” and that no party leaves the negotiating table, that the negotiating process have “a timetable with a sense of urgency”, and that it be impossible to return to the status quo once negotiations begin.

Erhuman voting with his wife Nilden Bektas Erhurman in 2023

The poll also looked at how Turkish Cypriots intend to vote in their next ‘parliamentary’ election, with Erhurman’s party the CTP leading the way on this front, too. However, given the way the north’s ‘parliamentary’ system works, this would likely not be enough to see the party return to power for the first time since 2019.

This is because the north requires in its ‘parliamentary’ elections that parties receive at least five per cent of the total vote to be able to win seats, and, according to this poll, only three parties managed to do so.

Those parties were the CTP on 32.7 per cent, and ruling coalition parties the UBP and the YDP on 30.9 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively.

Such a result would likely see the CTP win 24 seats in ‘parliament’, up from their current figure of 19. However, the UBP would likely win 23 seats and the YDP would likely win the remaining three, thus being able to form a ‘government’ with a working majority of two.

The third party in the north’s current ruling coalition, the DP, appear to be the big losers in the poll, falling to just 1.4 per cent. Were such a result to come to pass, it would be the first time in the party’s 33-year history that it has failed to be elected to ‘parliament’.

Ozersay’s party the HP, which currently has no ‘MPs’ but won three seats at the 2022 election, would also not win any seats according to the poll, standing at just 2.9 per cent, while Akinci and Harmanci’s TDP, which failed to win election to ‘parliament’ for the first time in its history in 2022, would win just 2.7 per cent of the vote and once again fail to win any seats.

The next Turkish Cypriot ‘parliamentary’ election must take place before February 2027.