The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI), compiled and published by the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus (CypERC), recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.3 per cent in June 2025.

This follows revised increases of 2.6 per cent in May and 3.1 per cent in April 2025.

The index maintained its upward trend in June 2025, though at a more moderate growth pace.

This deceleration is attributed to the slowing growth rates of certain key components, particularly the year-on-year decline in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus.

There was also a marked deterioration in the euro area’s economic climate during the second quarter of 2025.

Additionally, the volume of electricity production in Cyprus, adjusted for temperature, showed a lower year-on-year growth rate.

Nonetheless, other indicators contributed positively to the overall performance of the CCLEI in June.

These included property sales, tourist arrivals, transactions with Cypriot credit cards, and the volume of retail trade sales.

Weekly data also show that a decline in the price of Brent crude oil helped bolster the index’s performance.

CypERC stated that the more moderate growth rate of the index signals increasing strain from global economic conditions.

“The slowdown in the positive growth rate of the CCLEI reflects the increasing pressures from the external economic environment, amidst increasing uncertainty,” the centre said.

They added that “in particular, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and their potential impact on international energy markets require close monitoring and careful assessment of the medium-term prospects of the Cypriot economy.”

The CCLEI is designed to provide early warning signals of turning points in business cycles.

It comprises a range of domestic and international variables whose shifts tend to precede broader changes in economic activity.

The components of the CCLEI include the Brent crude oil price in euros, the Economic Sentiment Indicator in both Cyprus and the euro area, and total property sales contracts.

They also include tourist arrivals to Cyprus, the value of Cypriot credit card transactions, the volume index of retail trade turnover, and the temperature-adjusted electricity production index.

Each of these is assessed regularly and collectively form the backbone of the CCLEI’s predictive function.