Next week, on Wednesday February 24, I shall be flying the federal flag at the second panel webinar organised by the UK-based Council of Turkish Cypriot Associations.
My take is very simple: Turkish Cypriots do not have to rise to the bait of a two-state solution just because President Anastasiades and Archbishop Chrysostomos said they preferred it to federation.
That said, the two-states option has been gaining traction of late due in no small measure to a feeling among Turkish Cypriots that they were messed around at Crans Montana in 2017 when federation was the only option on the table.
Nevertheless, re-engagement with the Republic of Cyprus (RoC) in a federal enterprise has been the well-trodden route to a settlement for generations and the current Greek Cypriot leadership has neither the clout nor the trust of the Greek Cypriot people to persuade them to agree two states.
If the Greek Cypriot leadership formally agrees two states, rather than engaging in loose talk, then needs must, but only if the agreement of RoC for the creation of a state from its territory is confirmed by the people; the executive branch and the legislature simply do not have constitutional authority to go beyond a federal realignment of RoC.
Before I go on to consider the arguments in more detail, a few words out of courtesy to the non-Cypriot members of the panel. They are Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Sir Jefferey Donaldson and Dr Christian Heinze, respectively from Scotland, Ulster and the Federal Republic of Germany.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith is a prominent British politician. He is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. He was leader of his party as well a previous Secretary of State at the Department of Work and Pensions. He championed Britain’s exit from the EU and is now an influential backbencher.
As a unionist he is by definition against Scottish independence and knows that without the consent of the UK parliament, Scottish independence cannot happen. The present government’s policy is that a once-in-a-generation referendum was held in 2014 and Scotland voted to stay part of the UK. So the best way forward for Scotland is further and better devolution.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP is leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland Unionists in the UK parliament. As an Ulster Unionist he is vehemently opposed to Ulster breaking away from the UK and uniting with Ireland.
His predecessor, the late Dr Iain Paisley, was a unionist firebrand who made peace in Northern Ireland and justified his volte-face when taking office as First Minister quoting from King Solomon in his amazing growl of a voice. The gist of his quote was: “To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose. A time to kill and a time to heal. A time to love and a time to hate. A time of war and a time of peace. I believe that Northern Ireland has come to a time of peace, a time when hate will no longer rule.”
The Good Friday agreement set up power sharing in Northern Ireland, which Paisley supported because it preserved the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in accordance with the will of the majority Protestant community.
Dr Christian Heinze is a German jurist with knowledge of the constitution of Cyprus which he gained as a young assistant to the president of the Cyprus Constitutional Court Ernst Forsthoff who resigned in 1963 when the government of Archbishop Makarios defied the constitution and its court – arguably the root cause of the Cyprus problem.
Germany was itself divided after World War II into two independent states. When the Soviet Bloc fell apart in 1989, East Germany was reunited with West Germany the following year.
The way this was done is instructive. The states comprising East Germany joined the states already part of Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) and thereby joined the EU without having to apply as a separate member state.
For Turkish Cypriots three questions fall to be considered: is a two-state solution lawful? Is it feasible? Is it desirable?
Turkey’s promotion of a two-state solution is not lawful. Just look at Turkey’s favourite treaty. The treaty of guarantee guarantees the constitution of Cyprus and the constitution excludes separatist independence.
Many people look upon the treaties and Cyprus’ 1960 constitution as old and irrelevant, however in the lifespan of states 60 years is not old. In historical terms it is far too early to tell if the 1960 treaties and constitutional arrangements are no longer relevant. They were certainly prescient; for example, a federal realignment has always been an option in the gift of the legislature in Cyprus.
In light of the demographic changes between 1963 and 1974 that occurred because RoC failed in its primary duty as a state to protect its Turkish Cypriot citizens, a federation should have been agreed after the Turkish Cypriot community became safely ensconced in northern Cyprus.
What needs to happen now is for some central government powers and rights and obligations to be transposed to the constituent states, leaving the central federal government enough power to preserve RoC as an umbrella state within the bigger umbrella super state of Europe – it is a no-brainer.
The idea of an EU umbrella with no intermediary umbrella state would not be compatible with EU law. The EU relies on the government of member states to enforce its laws and participate in its decision-making processes, and in strategic decisions it requires central government ministers and heads of state or heads of government to take part in its deliberations.
It is true that where there is a central government the EU can have free standing relationships with regional state governments like it used to with Scotland and still does with the German states, but it cannot leapfrog central government altogether in crucial areas of EU policymaking.
As for the feasibility of a two-state solution the reality is that it requires the agreement of RoC, which is not going to be forthcoming – certainly not from the people. In any case it would require fundamental treaty change and quite apart from RoC and Greece, Britain would probably not want to open a Pandora’s box that could destabilise the status of her military bases.
Finally Turkish Cypriots have to consider whether a two-state solution is desirable or whether it would be one step forward, two steps back – continuing non recognition and out of the EU.
There is no such thing as a velvet divorce – they are usually very messy.
- Alper Ali Riza is a queen’s counsel in the UK and a retired part time judge
