By Nicolas Netien

Imagine walking into your local supermarket, reaching for that trusted bottle of olive oil, only to find that the price has nearly doubled. This isn’t just a hypothetical scenario; it’s happening right now across Europe, and Cyprus is feeling the pinch too. The world is in the midst of an olive oil crisis, and its ripples are affecting everything from dinner tables to public health. 

In 2023, olive oil prices started climbing, and they haven’t stopped. By early 2024, the average price for extra virgin olive oil hit $10.20 per litre, up from $3.80 in early 2022. In Cyprus, where olive oil is more than just a cooking ingredient – it’s a cultural staple – prices have nearly doubled. This price hike is making it harder for families to afford the oil they’ve relied on for generations. 

So, what does this mean for how much olive oil people are using? Let’s take a look at Spain, Cyprus, and Greece – countries where olive oil is practically a way of life. 

Spain: Spaniards used to consume about 15 litres of olive oil per person each year. Now, with prices through the roof, that’s dropped to 12 litres. That’s a 15 per cent cut.

Cyprus: The average Cypriot was consuming around 10 litres per year, but now it’s down to about eight litres – a 12 per cent decline.

Greece: Greeks have the highest consumption of olive oil per capita in the world, people typically use around 20 litres per person per year, consumption has fallen to just under 17 litres, a 15 per cent reduction.

Even in places like the USA and Northern Europe, where olive oil has been gaining popularity due to its health benefits, the price surge is causing people to reconsider their choices. In the US, olive oil consumption had been climbing steadily, but now, many are switching back to cheaper oils. 

Why are prices so high?

The biggest culprit behind these skyrocketing prices is climate change. Spain, which produces about 45 per cent of the world’s olive oil, had a terrible year in 2023. Droughts and heatwaves decimated the olive harvest, cutting production by almost half. With Spain struggling, the global supply has taken a hit, and prices have shot up. Italy and Greece have faced similar, though less severe, challenges. 

High prices might sound like good news for producers, right? Not exactly. When prices get too high, bad things happen. When prices soar, the risk of fraud skyrockets. Unscrupulous sellers may start mixing olive oil with cheaper oils to maximise profits, undermining trust in the market. A 2023 report from the European Commission highlighted a 20 per cent increase in olive oil fraud cases. This fraud can deceive even the most discerning consumers, leading to widespread skepticism and loss of confidence in olive oil products. 

Moreover, as olive oil becomes more expensive, people turn to cheaper, less healthy alternatives. Olive oil is a nutritional powerhouse, packed with polyphenols that offer a host of health benefits. These compounds are known to reduce inflammation, lower the risk of heart disease, and protect against a variety of cancers. Emerging research also suggests that regular consumption of olive oil can help prevent degenerative brain diseases like Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia. The antioxidants in olive oil support brain health and cognitive function, making it a critical component of a healthy diet. 

If consumers switch to oils lacking these beneficial properties, public health could take a significant hit. The loss of olive oil’s protective effects could lead to increased rates of chronic diseases and a decline in overall health and well-being. 

New players on the horizon

Despite the current challenges, there is hope on the horizon. Countries in the “New World”, such as Australia, Chile, Argentina and the United States, are expanding their olive production. In 2023, Australia reported a 15 per cent increase in olive oil output, while Chile and Argentina saw growth rates of 12 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. As these regions ramp up production, they could help stabilise global prices and provide a buffer against future supply shocks. 

Cyprus: a case for sustainable olive cultivation

For Cyprus, the olive oil crisis presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Climate change is rendering traditional crops like citrus increasingly unsustainable due to their high water demands. Olives, on the other hand, are more drought-resistant and can thrive with less water, making them an ideal crop for the island’s changing climate. 

Olive trees are carbon-negative, meaning olive oil production absorbs more CO2 than it emits

Olive trees also offer environmental benefits. They are carbon-negative, meaning olive oil production absorbs more CO2 than it emits. Plus, olive groves can be combined with other crops and livestock in sustainable farming practices. Cyprus has a unique edge, too: it produces olive oil with the highest phenolic content in the world, which means it’s of exceptionally high quality. This could allow Cypriot producers to carve out a niche market, focusing on premium, high-value olive oil. 

So, where do we go from here? The olive oil crisis highlights the need for a balanced approach that considers economic realities, environmental sustainability and public health. For countries like Cyprus, it’s an opportunity to innovate and lead in quality production. By adopting sustainable practices and improving production methods, Cyprus can become a key player in the global olive oil market, even in challenging times. 

Ultimately, the goal is to ensure that olive oil remains an accessible and cherished part of our diets. Olive oil is the cornerstone of the Mediterranean diet, widely regarded as the healthiest diet in the world. It is more than just a culinary delight; it is a key to longevity and wellness. 

The journey ahead will require resilience and adaptability. With the right strategies, we can navigate this crisis and emerge stronger. Embracing sustainable practices, enhancing production methods, and maintaining a focus on quality will help preserve the rich traditions and exceptional health benefits that olive oil brings to our lives. By doing so, we can ensure that this vital component of the Mediterranean diet continues to nourish and sustain us for generations to come. 

Nicolas Netien is an environmental engineer, specialising in agroecology and permaculture design, based in Cyprus