So why are the Israelis still bombing Gaza?

US foreign minister Anthony Blinken was first on the Gaza ceasefire bandwagon last week. Israel and Hamas are right on the brink of a ceasefire agreement he said on Monday, as if it was something unwelcome.

He was quickly followed by President-elect Donald Trump who claimed all the credit for an epic ceasefire, as if there was something poetic about the cessation of hostilities.

There is no accounting for English usage in America, but in the end it was the announcement of the Qatari prime minister in Doha that was definitive. Israel and Hamas had indeed agreed a ceasefire in Gaza – not that you would know it from the incessant bombardment of the defenceless women and children in Gaza that continued unabated.

They should have been required to stop the killing in the spirit of the ceasefire agreement forthwith, pending the ceasefire on Sunday as it is so unfair for people to be killed just before a war ends.

The announcement was followed by one from US President Joe Biden who confirmed that a ceasefire had been agreed and that it was the same deal as the one he proposed last May. Yet Biden was more concerned that Trump would take the credit for the ceasefire than for the lives lost owing to his failure to show a bit of gumption as a guarantor of the ceasefire agreement and tell the Israelis to stop their killing spree.

Asked if Donald Trump deserved some of the credit as he left the podium, Biden turned back and asked rhetorically “is that a joke? For those of a superstitious disposition, the rivalry between Biden and Trump could jinx the Gaza ceasefire which is very fragile owing to the loathing and distrust the parties have for each other.

The Israeli cabinet has now approved the ceasefire agreement, but the extreme nationalists in the Israeli government believe that the ceasefire rewards Hamas for its attack in October 2023 and branded it a pact with the devil – the jury is out on which side has been more devilish in Gaza and we will know when they rule on war crimes and genocide.

Traumatic though the Hamas atrocities on Israel of October 7, 2023 were, moderate Israelis must know that the attack was also an aberrant security failure by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and that their security would gain more by finding out why and how the IDF was caught napping than by killing more Palestinians.

Ceasefire agreements do not happen in a vacuum. While It is true that the obligations Israel has undertaken are many more than Hamas’ single obligation to release hostages, most of Israel’s obligations derive from international humanitarian law contained in the 1949 Geneva Conventions rather than compliance with Hamas’ demands.

Ceasefire agreements reflect the 1949 Conventions and provide protection for the sick and wounded, hostages, prisoners and the civilian population in time of war which includes when combatants are in ceasefire mode – there is no free-standing ceasefire law as such.

The Gaza ceasefire agreement is intended as a staged pathway to peace comprising three phases of 42 days each that link the release of hostages to a permanent ceasefire and assistance and protection of civilians. Its implementation is guaranteed by the US, Egypt and Qatar – presumably the US will ensure compliance by Israel, and Egypt and Qatar the compliance by Hamas.

In phase I Hamas will release 33 hostages, three at a time in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of the IDF from densely populated areas. Israel will allow freedom of movement of the population and proper access to food and other essential provisions.

Phase II will be the most problematic because the extreme nationalists in the Israeli government wish to return to military action instead of military withdrawal. The ceasefire agreement provides for negotiations with a view to complete military withdrawal and for a permanent ceasefire; during phase II all remaining hostages will be released, the idea being that the release of all the hostages will end with a permanent ceasefire.

Phase III will involve the return of the dead of each side and the reconstruction of Gaza, presumably financed by Qatar and other wealthy Arab states in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. 

The announcement of a ceasefire was greeted with celebration among the long-suffering people in Gaza and quiet hopeful reflection by the hostage families in Israel, some of whom distrust the Netanyahu government almost as much as they distrust Hamas.

Save for skirmishes between combatants in the battlefield, the heavy bombardment of civilians after the ceasefire was agreed was manifestly unlawful. It could not have been necessary and proportionate self-defence against imminent armed attack because what has been imminent since last Wednesday was not an attack but a ceasefire.

The extremists in the Israeli government insist on the unconditional surrender of Hamas and imposition of terms by Israel like the Allies imposed on Nazi Germany in 1945. These days most wars end by a ceasefire in the hope of a political settlement afterwards. This is what is likely to happen in Gaza and in Ukraine.

In Cyprus after the war in 1974 the parties agreed a ceasefire line known as the Green Line that varies in width that developed into a buffer zone policed by the UN pending a political settlement. If there is one thing the war in Gaza shows, it is that frozen conflicts can easily melt down and it is high time Cyprus settled its political problem, for there by the Grace of God.

Alper Ali Riza is a king’s counsel in the UK and a retired part time judge