‘When I was a kid, a temperature of 40 degrees was all over the news! Now, it’s just summer’

Weather prediction is an inexact science. Just ask Michael Fish!

He may not be quite as famous in Cyprus as in the UK, but this was the weather forecaster who, on October 15, 1987, assured Britain no hurricane was on its way – hours before the worst storm to hit south east England in three centuries killed 18 and cost £2 billion in damage!

His story has gone down in history as an example of how even experts can’t always accurately predict conditions. And it’s led to what’s now known as ‘the Michael Fish effect’, whereby weather channels and media prefer to present the worst-case scenario: underestimate the conditions, and it could go wrong; overestimate, and you’re just being careful!

It’s not the forecasters’ fault: the atmosphere is a chaotic system. Even the best computer models can’t account for every variable. And climate change further confuses the picture.

There are however, always a few givens. It will rain on a UK bank holiday. Melbourne will swing from sun to cloud faster than you can order a flat white.

And in Cyprus, summer will be hot. The only question is, how hot?

Given that our island’s temperatures have been steadily rising for years, summer is likely to be searing. But you don’t have to take our word for it – the science is all there…

According to a 2024 report from the IMF: “Cyprus’ summers have become increasingly intense, characterised by prolonged periods of extreme heat and more frequent heatwaves.”

It adds that the average annual temperature in Nicosia has risen by 2C over the last 30 years, giving us an extra 20 days per year of extreme heat; that the average yearly temperature in both urban and rural areas is on the rise; that precipitation is declining; and that, by the end of this century, Cyprus could experience a further 2.5C increase.

All of which makes it easy to paint a dire picture: Shock! Horror! We’re all going to die!

We’re not. (Although if you’ve ever had a high fever, you know exactly how much difference a single degree can make).

But a couple of degrees certainly changes things more than you’d think…

According to NASA, an increase in global temperature of just 1.5C causes more deadly heatwaves, water stress across half the planet, declining food availability, and rising sea levels.

In Cyprus, a climate change hotspot, that means longer, more intense summers, dwindling water reserves, higher risks of wildfires, declining marine life and coastal erosion. And all these carry a growing economic cost, from losses in agriculture, infrastructure and tourism to soaring energy demands.

As early as 1999, researchers were on to Cyprus’ rising temperatures, proving that the island was already warming at roughly twice the global average.

By 2021, a senior meteorology official had warned that our average summer temperature for the past four years had been two degrees over the seasonal average. And that same year, Cyprus appeared in a scientific study on hottest-ever temperatures; a study that warned such extremes would occur more frequently in the island’s near future.

The study quickly proved correct: in July 2023, Cyprus not only broke multiple heat records, it also experienced 16 days in a row with temperatures over 40 degrees.

In 2024, the island outdid itself once more…

In June, inland temperatures were already 5.7C higher than the month’s average, and Meteorological Service weather stations had recorded their highest ever temperatures for the month. By July, Cyprus was registering as the hottest month on record since the island’s climatic data began.

And on July 20, 2024, Cyprus experienced the highest electricity demand of all time (a day before the entire world registered its hottest day in history!), which caused island-wide power cuts, increased hospitalisations and huge electricity bills!

So, what does all this mean for summer 2025?

Well, if you want to know, look not to the forecasters. Look to the sea.

Oceans are our planet’s biggest thermostat, absorbing more than 90 per cent of excess heat. And as water retains heat far longer than air, even a small rise in sea temperature signals a much bigger shift: intensified heatwaves, increased humidity and a disruption in weather patterns.

So when we ask what summer 2025 might bring, the sea is already giving us answers…

“The Mediterranean, especially the enclosed eastern basin, is warming even faster than the oceans,” explains Dimitris Kleitou of Cyprus’ Marine and Environmental Research Lab. “Think of the shallow end of a swimming pool: it’s always going to heat up faster than the deep end.

“Yes, there are other pressures on marine life,” he adds. “Overfishing, pollution, habitat destruction; all play a role. But the sea itself is showing us that summers are now hotter for longer.”

Dimitris isn’t just tracking change from an air-conditioned office. He’s out in the field, measuring its impact first-hand. And what he’s seeing is undeniable.

“Rising sea temperatures are clearly reflected in a host of invasive species from the Red Sea, in the coral reefs and seagrass meadows now dying under prolonged marine heatwaves.

“When I was a kid,” Dimitris adds, “a temperature of 40 degrees would be all over the news. Now, 40-degrees plus is just summer. And this year? Well, I’m expecting to see even longer periods of extreme heat: marine heatwaves stressing ecosystems even further; more invasive species outcompeting native fish; and significant losses across key habitats.”

The seas of Cyprus are telling us exactly what’s happening, and exactly what’s coming. So, as we head into summer 2025, the question isn’t really ‘Will Cyprus be hot?’ It’s ‘How much hotter will Cyprus be?’

Last year the first heatwave struck mid-May. This year, we saw over 30 degrees in March!

And while nobody wants to be the next Michael Fish, underestimating the heat could be just as risky as overhyping it. If summer brings record lows, and we all spend July shivering under cloudy skies, feel free to condemn me.

But if the signs are right – and the sea, the land, the data, and the experts all say they are – prepare for a scorcher!