A second-time presidential candidate who lost out to Tayyip Erdogan in a 2018 vote could push Turkey’s May election to a second round, potentially boosting the president’s prospects of winning, according to analysts and polls.

Muharrem Ince, formerly of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), joined the fray last month and secured a spot on the ballot at the weekend, fuelling concerns among Erdogan’s opponents about a split in the opposition vote.

Some surveys put Ince’s support at more than 5%, with one by Panoramatr giving him 10% last month.

Pollsters and analysts say his backers would mostly otherwise vote for CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is the main opposition candidate seen as the biggest electoral challenge to Erdogan in his 20 years in power.

“The fundamental consequence of Ince’s (candidacy) is sending the elections to a second round,” Panoramatr research director Osman Sert told Reuters.

He said Ince’s support could slide from 10%, where it has mostly held over the last month, as the vote approaches. “But even if there is such a meltdown it would not prevent the election going to a second round,” Sert said.

Some analysts say Ince might agree a deal with Kilicdaroglu and withdraw before the vote to boost the opposition which, polls suggest, retains an edge over the incumbent Erdogan.

But Ince indicated he would not bow to such pressure.

“There is no situation that would require us to withdraw and technically this isn’t possible,” he told broadcaster Haberturk on Monday, noting that an official draw on Saturday formalised his spot on the ballot.

Ince, whose blunt speeches and impromptu dances have drawn social media attention, resigned from the CHP two years ago and formed the Homeland Party after twice failing to become CHP leader.

“They are saying, ‘Muharrem Ince, withdraw’,” he said on Haberturk, referring to opposition critics. “Their only concern is, ‘We’ll lose the election, let’s declare the guilty party now’.”

A senior opposition party official, declining to be named due to the issue’s sensitivity, said Ince’s candidacy would make it difficult to defeat Erdogan in the first round but this can be overcome if, as the opposition alliance expects, his support and that of the fourth candidate Sinan Ogan drops to near 5% by election day.

A senior official from Erdogan’s AK Party said its internal polls put Ince’s support at some 8-9%, but did not provide the data.

POLITICAL STABILITY

If no presidential candidate gets more than 50% in the May 14 vote, the top two would compete in a second round two weeks later. Voters will also select parliamentarians.

Analysts say that whichever alliance – ruling or opposition – controls parliament will be well placed for its candidate to win a second presidential round given they could campaign on stability. Polls indicate the AKP will remain the largest party in parliament.

Data from closely-watched pollster Metropoll showed Ince and undecided voters would determine the presidential vote, its head Ozer Sencar said.

In its March survey, 44.6% of respondents said they would vote for Kilicdaroglu and 42.0% for Erdogan, if just given a choice between the two, while nearly 6% planned a “protest” vote.

Erdogan was 2.9 points ahead in a similar January survey by Metropoll.

Support for Erdogan dipped after February’s devastating earthquake amid perceptions of an initially slow response. More than 50,000 people were killed and millions left homeless.

Among voters opposed to Erdogan, some voice dissatisfaction with the diverse main opposition alliance, partly as it includes parties led by former Erdogan allies and an Islamist party.

“The fact that these people would be ministers and come to positions of authority bothers me,” said 28-year-old student Seckin Yetkin, saying he will vote for Ince like in 2018.

Ince won 30.6% of that vote, behind Erdogan on 52.6%.

FACTBOX: THE KEY PLAYERS

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES:

PRESIDENT TAYYIP ERDOGAN

Erdogan, 69, rose to power 20 years ago as Turkey emerged from a period of rampant inflation, promising sound government after the coalition of the time was accused of mismanagement. At the height of his success, Turkey enjoyed a protracted economic boom with rising living standards for its 85 million people.

Turkey’s longest-serving leader logged more than a dozen election victories and survived an attempted coup in 2016. He has shaped the country to his vision of a pious, conservative society and assertive regional player, even as critics say he has wielded the courts to crack down on dissent.

The May vote could be Erdogan’s toughest test to date after his years of unorthodox economic policies sparked a cost-of-living crisis. After devastating earthquakes in February, opponents blamed his government for a late response and for letting constructors flout rules that could have saved lives.

CHP LEADER KEMAL KILICDAROGLU

Kilicdaroglu, 74, head of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), was named the opposition alliance’s presidential candidate in February. Stuck in Erdogan’s shadow throughout his career, he has failed to close the gap with the AKP in parliamentary elections since he took the center-left CHP’s reins in 2010.

An earnest and sometimes feisty former civil servant, Kilicdaroglu entered parliament in 2002 with the CHP, a party established by modern Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk which has struggled to reach beyond its secularist grassroots towards move conservative Turks.

Yet polls show that Kilicdaroglu’s time may have come. His profile rose in 2017 when he led an opposition march from Ankara to Istanbul to protest the jailing of one of his lawmakers. Later he spearheaded the formation of an alliance with the nationalist-centrist IYI Party, which helped them win municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019 in a shock to Erdogan.

HOMELAND PARTY LEADER MUHARREM INCE

Former physics teacher and headmaster Muharrem Ince, 58, is seen as having little chance of becoming president. He came to prominence during his 16 years in parliament with combative speeches challenging Erdogan, and was the opposition’s main presidential candidate in 2018. He won 30.6% of the vote behind Erdogan’s 52.6%, but attracted right-wing voters beyond the CHP’S secular, Western-oriented base.

Before that he twice lost out to Kilicdaroglu to head the CHP. In 2019 he resigned from the party, citing a lack of internal democracy and disagreements over foreign policy and founded the Homeland Party.

SINAN OGAN

Sinan Ogan, 55, also has little prospect of victory. A former academic who established the think tank TURKSAM, he entered parliament in 2011 with the far-right MHP. He launched an unsuccessful bid for leadership of the MHP in 2015 and was subsequently expelled from the party. He declared his presidential candidacy last month without joining or forming another party.

ERDOGAN ALLIES:

MHP LEADER DEVLET BAHCELI

Ultranationalist leader Devlet Bahceli, 75, has helped Erdogan keep his grip on power after supporting his bid to switch to an executive presidency in a 2017 referendum. Previously a staunch opponent of Erdogan, Bahceli’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) began to work with the president and his AKP after a 2016 attempted coup. The closer ties were forged during a surge in violence between Turkey’s military and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants. A hatred of the PKK and a hardline stance against pro-Kurdish parties is a key part of Bahceli’s discourse.

OPPOSITION FIGURES:

IYI PARTY LEADER MERAL AKSENER

Former interior minister Meral Aksener, 66, leads the second-largest party in the opposition alliance, the centrist and moderately nationalist IYI Party. She has risen to greater prominence since 2016, when she was expelled from the MHP party after mounting an unsuccessful bid to oust Bahceli. She appeals to conservative voters and those disenchanted with the MHP’s alliance with the AKP. She has pressed for a return to the parliamentary system which was replaced in 2018 with a presidential one under Erdogan.

After initial opposition to Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, she returned to the alliance after convincing Kilicdaroglu that the Istanbul and Ankara mayors would serve as vice presidents if the opposition wins the May presidential election.

FORMER HDP LEADER SELAHATTIN DEMIRTAS

Former leader of pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) Selahattin Demirtas, 49, remains a key political figure despite being in jail since 2016. Polls suggest the oppositon alliance needs support from the HDP to defeat Erdogan. In recent months Demirtas’ Twitter account, with more than 2 million followers, had called for Kilicdaroglu to be the opposition candidate.

Demirtas was previously sentenced to three years in prison for insulting the president and now faces a potential life sentence in a trial with more than 100 other HDP politicians accused of instigating 2014 protests in which dozens died.

DEVA PARTY LEADER ALI BABACAN

Babacan, 55, is an ex-deputy prime minister and former close ally of Erdogan who quit the AKP in 2019 over differences about its direction. He formed the Deva (Remedy) Party and urged reforms to boost the rule of law and democracy. A former economy and foreign minister, he was well regarded by foreign investors.

FUTURE PARTY LEADER AHMET DAVUTOGLU

Davutoglu, 64, a former prime minister and foreign minister, broke with the AKP in 2019 and established the Gelecek (Future) Party. In the first decade of AKP rule he championed a less confrontational foreign policy with the mantra “zero problems with neighbours”, and has since criticised what he describes as a lurch towards authoritarianism under the executive presidency.

ISTANBUL MAYOR EKREM IMAMOGLU

After five years as CHP mayor of an Istanbul district, former businessman Ekrem Imamoglu, 52, rose to prominence in March 2019 when he defeated the AKP’s candidate in the Istanbul municipal election. He was sentenced to more than two years in prison in 2022 for insulting public officials and faces a political ban if the ruling is upheld.

ANKARA MAYOR MANSUR YAVAS

Nationalist politician and lawyer Mansur Yavas, 67, defeated the AKP’s Ankara mayoral candidate 2019 as the CHP candidate backed by an opposition alliance. Previously he served for 10 years as the nationalist MHP mayor of an Ankara district until 2009. He left the MHP and joined CHP in 2013.