The European Central Bank (ECB)’s consumer expectations survey for April 2026 showed a mixed shift in euro area household sentiment on inflation, income, growth and credit conditions.

Specifically, the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results indicated rising concern over recent price developments, with median perceived inflation over the past 12 months increasing significantly to 4.0 per cent in April from 3.5 per cent in March.

At the same time, inflation expectations three years ahead edged down slightly to 2.9 per cent from 3.0 per cent, while expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at 4.0 per cent.

Longer-term views were stable, with five-year inflation expectations unchanged at 2.4 per cent, suggesting anchored longer-run sentiment despite short-term volatility.

The ECB said uncertainty around inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained elevated, indicating continued caution among households.

It added that lower-income households continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than higher-income groups, while younger respondents aged 18 to 34 consistently reported lower readings than older age cohorts.

In terms of income and spending, expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months fell to 0.8 per cent in April from 1.2 per cent in March.

By contrast, perceived nominal spending growth over the past 12 months increased to 5.3 per cent, up from 5.1 per cent in March.

Households also revised up their outlook for consumption, with expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months rising to 4.3 per cent from 4.1 per cent.

The ECB noted that respondents in lower income groups expected slightly stronger spending growth than those in higher income quintiles.

On the macroeconomic outlook, economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative at -2.2 per cent in April, compared with -2.1 per cent in March.

Despite weaker growth sentiment, the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead eased slightly to 11.2 per cent from 11.3 per cent.

The central bank said lower-income households continued to expect higher unemployment, at 13.3 per cent, while higher-income groups expected 9.4 per cent.

Consumers also continued to expect future unemployment to be slightly above the perceived current rate of 10.5 per cent, pointing to a broadly stable labour market outlook overall.

Quarterly labour market data showed mixed signals, with unemployed respondents reporting an improved probability of finding a job rising to 32.1 per cent in April from 30.1 per cent in January.

At the same time, employed respondents reported a higher expected probability of job loss increasing to 8.8 per cent from 8.2 per cent over the same period.

In the housing market, consumers maintained expectations that house prices will rise by 3.7 per cent over the next 12 months, unchanged from March.

The ECB said lower-income households continued to expect stronger home price growth at 4.0 per cent, compared with 3.4 per cent among higher-income groups.

Expectations for borrowing costs were also unchanged, with mortgage interest rates expected to stand at 4.9 per cent in 12 months’ time.

Lower-income households again anticipated higher rates at 5.6 per cent, while higher-income respondents expected 4.4 per cent.

The survey also showed tightening credit conditions, with the net share of households reporting tighter access to credit reaching its highest level since February 2024.

Expectations for future credit conditions also worsened, with the net percentage anticipating further tightening rising to its highest level since October 2023.

Meanwhile, actual credit demand weakened, with the share of consumers who applied for credit in the past three months falling to 13.4 per cent in April from 14.8 per cent in January, the lowest level since April 2023.