The European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that disruptions to trade through the Strait of Hormuz could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, with supply shortages extending well beyond higher energy prices and placing up to 3 per cent of euro area production at risk in a worst-case scenario.

In a blog post published on Wednesday, ECB economists Pablo Aguilar, Lukas Boeckelmann and Antoine Kornprobst said that while recent tensions in the Middle East have eased, the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical bottleneck for global energy supplies.

The authors explained that the war in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz unsettled oil markets, sending energy prices sharply higher and increasing uncertainty across the global economy.

They said that disruptions to exports of energy, petrochemicals and other intermediate goods from Gulf countries could create shortages if importing economies are unable to replace these supplies because strategic reserves are unavailable or inventories have been depleted.

Such shortages, they argued, would hamper production processes and generate knock-on effects throughout global supply chains, weakening economic growth while adding to inflationary pressures.

The blog said that although Eurosystem staff had already incorporated the effects of higher global energy prices into the ECB’s severe Middle East scenario for its June 2026 macroeconomic projections, the latest analysis examined the additional risks arising from physical supply shortages and fragmented trade flows.

According to the analysis, dependence on Gulf energy imports differs considerably across economies.

Asian countries were identified as the most exposed, with Gulf suppliers accounting for more than 50 per cent of total energy imports in Japan, South Korea and India, and around one-third in China and the ASEAN economies.

By comparison, Gulf energy accounts for only around 10 per cent of total energy imports in the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The ECB also warned that energy-intensive industries, including petrochemicals, aluminium, fertilisers and semiconductors, are particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions, with problems potentially spreading to manufacturing through global production networks.

It added that because Asia plays a central role in global manufacturing, lower industrial output there could have widespread international repercussions.

Although risks from disruptions to exports of non-energy goods from Gulf countries appear more limited overall, the ECB said shortages of products such as fertilisers, aluminium and petrochemicals could still have significant downstream effects.

It estimated that disruptions could remove around one-third of global helium production and one-fifth of global methanol production, affecting industries including semiconductors, aerospace and industrial manufacturing, particularly in Asia.

The ECB assessed two scenarios, one involving a complete and persistent disruption to Gulf exports of energy products and another extending the disruption to industrial and other goods.

The first scenario assumed that domestic buffers, including strategic oil and gas reserves, would not be available to protect households and businesses from supply shortages.

The second scenario assumed more limited opportunities for firms to replace disrupted imports, illustrating the vulnerability of international supply chains.

Using two separate economic models, the ECB found that the largest production losses would occur in Asia, reaching up to 11 per cent in South Korea, around 8 per cent in India, approximately 7 per cent in Japan and up to 5 per cent across ASEAN economies.

For the euro area, production losses could reach up to 3 per cent if firms were unable to replace disrupted supplies.

However, under a more favourable scenario in which businesses successfully substitute missing imports, euro area production losses would be significantly lower at 0.4 per cent under the energy disruption scenario and 0.6 per cent under the broader disruption scenario.

The ECB concluded that scenario analysis provides an important tool for assessing geopolitical risks that extend beyond higher energy prices and uncertainty.

It added that while the likelihood of such a severe disruption has diminished as regional tensions have eased, persistent interruptions to energy and intermediate goods supplies could substantially increase the economic costs of geopolitical shocks through global production networks.

The authors said the findings underline the importance of monitoring both direct energy dependence and indirect supply chain vulnerabilities, maintaining adequate strategic buffers and strengthening contingency planning for sectors that rely on critical inputs that are difficult to replace.