Cyprus’ Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) remained in negative territory in June 2026, posting a year-on-year decline of 0.65 per cent, according to the latest estimates published by the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus (CypERC).

The centre said the latest reading marks another year-on-year decline following similar decreases in previous months, suggesting that external pressures continue to weigh on the short-term outlook for the Cypriot economy.

Although the index remained negative, the research centre said the June reading reflected a moderation in the pace of the decline, even as international economic and geopolitical pressures continued to affect economic activity.

According to the report, the negative year-on-year performance primarily reflects persisting external pressures and subdued economic activity in an environment characterised by heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

A key factor behind the weaker reading was the weighted Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which combines confidence levels in Cyprus and the euro area and remained below its level of June 2025.

The report attributed this mainly to weaker business and consumer confidence in Cyprus.

At the same time, the price of Brent crude oil remained higher on a year-on-year basis, while the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production and tourist arrivals both recorded annual declines, adding further downward pressure to the index.

However, the report identified several areas of resilience that helped limit the overall deterioration.

In particular, Cypriot credit card transactions, the retail sales volume index and property sales contracts all made positive contributions to the index’s year-on-year performance, offsetting part of the negative impact from the remaining components.

Broadly, the latest report indicates that the Cypriot economy continues to face short-term challenges, largely because of the uncertain international economic and geopolitical environment.

At the same time, the positive performance of several key indicators, particularly credit card transactions, retail sales and property sales contracts, suggests that there are still factors supporting economic activity despite the difficult external backdrop.

The CCLEI is designed to provide early warning signals of turning points in the Cypriot business cycle, helping identify changes in economic activity before they become evident in broader economic data.

The index is compiled using a range of domestic and international leading indicators.

These include the price of Brent crude oil, the Economic Sentiment Indicator in Cyprus and the euro area, total property sales contracts, tourist arrivals, the value of Cypriot credit card transactions, the retail trade sales volume index and the temperature-adjusted electricity production volume index.