The media and political reaction to the signing of the latest energy agreements with Egypt was understandably muted, despite the presidential palace’s enthusiastic efforts to talk up their significance. Monday was a ‘historic’ day according to President Christodoulides, who has developed a tendency for reading great significance into every decision he takes.

“The agreements are catalytic, changing the status quo of the wider region, and also beyond it, for Europe,” he said after the signing. Meanwhile, in Nicosia, a government announcement said the agreements’ “essence is not limited only to promoting the exploitation of the deposits but also broadens the prospects of energy cooperation with Egypt, while contributing to regional stability and strengthening our country’s geopolitical position in the Eastern Mediterranean.”

This failed to impress in Cyprus, where the signing of the agreement passed almost unnoticed for very good reason. After more than 10 years of energy plans, declarations, agreements and alliances that have amounted to nothing, people are perfectly justified not to believe anything they hear about the natural gas reserves in the Cypriot EEZ. The Anastasiades government’s trilateral alliances for energy cooperation proved nothing more than publicity stunts, having produced nothing tangible in the energy field.

On Monday one agreement and a memorandum of understanding were signed. The ‘host government agreement’ was signed by Cyprus, Egypt and the companies with the drilling licence for Block 6, ENI and Total. Under this agreement natural gas from the fields in Block 6 would be taken to Egypt’s LNG terminal in the port city of Damietta for liquefaction and export; the gas would go through Egypt’s Zohr gas field that is operated by ENI. The ‘host country agreement’ was binding, according to the Cyprus Mail’s energy analyst Charles Ellinas, and meant that as soon as ENI decided to extract gas from Block 6 it could do so.

The MoU, meanwhile, signed by Cyprus, Egypt and the companies with the licence for the Aphrodite field in Block 12, led by Chevron, “establishes the framework for the effective commercialisation of the natural gas that would come from the field.” Interestingly, as Ellinas pointed out, the memorandum is not binding and the final investment decision is up to Chevron, which could still decide that the effective commercialisation the Aphrodite gas is not economically possible.

This illustrates the almost complete dependence on oil companies by governments. This is why, some 13 years after the first natural gas discovery in the Cypriot EEZ, no gas has been extracted yet. And despite Monday’s agreement and MoU it may be several more years before this happens. Pressed on a radio show on Tuesday morning to give expected dates for the start of the exploitation and marketing of our natural gas, Energy Minister George Papanastasiou, refused to say anything. He knows there are no certainties in the energy business.

The reality is that even the agreement with Egypt, despite that government’s positive spin, should be approached with a large degree of caution, because until now our energy cooperation with Egypt has been stuck in the realm of fine words. None of the many declarations and grandiose plans of the previous 10 years have ever been put into practice. Hopefully Monday’s agreement will go against this trend.