Before last Sunday’s ‘presidential’ election in the occupied north there was much speculation about what would happen in the event of a win for CTP leader Tufan Erhurman, who, unlike his defeated predecessor, Ersin Tatar is committed to some type of federal settlement.

A senior member of the Greek Cypriot negotiating team in private conversation said that if Erhurman was elected, it would be full steam ahead for a settlement. Whether the comment was made in the belief that Tatar would win the election and allow the Greek Cypriot leadership to remain in its comfort zone, blaming the deadlock on the other side, nobody can say.

Some political commentators had a different take. If Erhurman was elected, they claimed, he would put President Nikos Christodoulides in a very difficult spot as he would expose his lack of interest in the settlement that he paid lip service to, safe in the knowledge that Tatar would never budge from his two-state position. How Christodoulides will react when faced with a Turkish Cypriot leader who supports a federal settlement and is prepared to negotiate is unknown.

Erhurman, in his campaign, gave unrelenting backing to the pursuit of a settlement as this would ensure against the north becoming a province of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots losing their identity. He did not say this but implied it by declaring at an election gathering that “every corner of this island will be Europe”. He promised that “there will be no European south or Middle Eastern north of the island.” Only through reunification under a federal arrangement would he be able to deliver on his promise.

There is, however, a big question mark over Turkey’s position. Ankara fully supported Tatar’s uncompromising stance on two states and it is impossible to believe that he had dragged Turkey to his way of thinking. In fact, the idea of two states was being voiced by Turkey before Tatar’s election, after then president Nicos Anastasiades had expressed support for it at a meeting with Turkey’s foreign minister at Crans-Montana in 2017. Turkish government officials have also argued since then, not without justification, that after 50 years of failed attempts to reach agreement on a federal settlement there was no point carrying on pursuing it. It was time for a different solution.

President Erdogan congratulated Erhurman for his landslide win on Monday, while on Friday he said this was “a significant election and the will of the Turkish Cypriots is highly respected by us”. He also said that his door would be open to the new Turkish Cypriot leader and when he visits at the end of next week, “we will discuss relations in detail with them.”

Erdogan did not mention the Cyprus peace process on Friday but made a comment that could be an indication of Turkey’s intentions. “We did not invest so much in north Cyprus for nothing,” he said, which could be taken to mean that there is no way Turkey would give up its control of the north. If there were a settlement and all of Cyprus became part of the EU, as Erhurman desires, there would be no return on Turkey’s big investment in the north.

Former Disy leader Averof Neophytou proposes a way of addressing this Turkish concern in a comment also published today by the Cyprus Mail. Neophytou argues that a federal settlement could be in everyone’s interest. Turkey, for example, would be allowed to utilise the Safe defence fund programme of the EU, access to which is currently being blocked by Cyprus and Greece, and also proceed with customs union talks. The EU, which wants Turkey in its defence plans and to have access to Safe, would see relations with Ankara put on a sound basis as a result of a settlement. Greece-Turkey relations could also improve, and regional energy cooperation expanded.

All these developments would not only be a return on Turkey’s big investment in the north but would also assist the defence plans of the EU and open the path for close cooperation with Nato, which has been closed as a result of the Cyprus problem. The alignment of common interests, which Neophytou referred to in his article, would give some hope of a breakthrough, assuming the sides actually want a deal.