The agreement between the US and Iran to end their military standoff has brought immediate relief to international markets, sending oil prices lower and easing fears over energy supplies. 

However, as of Tuesday morning, June 16, the picture for global shipping remains far more complicated. 

The agreement is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors, after months of disruption. Yet details remain limited, while a permanent truce has still to be negotiated. 

According to Reuters, US president Donald Trump said on Monday that a preliminary agreement had been signed by Washington and Tehran, although both countries have indicated that a lasting settlement will require further talks. 

The deal would extend a fragile ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days and allow the reopening of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since the US and Israel attacked Iran in February. 

Reuters reported that oil prices fell to their lowest level since March 10 after the announcement, reflecting market hopes that energy flows through the waterway could gradually resume. 

Still, for shipping, the return to normality is expected to be slow. 

Around 600 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, while hundreds more are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to enter the region and load cargo, as shipowners, insurers and traders continue to assess whether the Strait of Hormuz can be used safely again. 

Although the deal has raised hopes of de-escalation, shipping bodies and market analysts remain cautious, warning that the security situation is still fluid and that confidence will take time to return. 

Shipping data cited by Bloomberg showed that almost 600 vessels are still immobilised in the Persian Gulf, waiting to leave once navigation is fully restored. 

At the same time, more than 300 empty-cargo ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to enter the region and load goods, creating one of the largest maritime bottlenecks seen in recent years in one of the world’s most important trade corridors. 

Of the ships still in the Gulf, 98 are crude oil tankers, while another 88 are carrying refined products and petroleum derivatives. 

Behind these figures are millions of barrels of oil and large quantities of energy products waiting to reach international markets. 

The agreement may have opened the way for these flows to resume, but the process is unlikely to be as quick as the first market reaction suggested. 

For now, oil markets appear to be pricing in a return to more stable energy flows. Yet analysts say the reopening of Hormuz cannot be treated as a switch that is simply turned back on. 

Physical flows may begin to recover relatively quickly, but trust in the route is expected to take longer. 

Over the past few months, refiners, energy importers and trading houses were forced to redraw supply plans, build alternative reserves and look for new sources of energy products. 

Even if the Strait of Hormuz operates without further disruption, many of those changes are unlikely to be reversed immediately. 

This is why the focus is now shifting from political announcements to practical indicators on the ground and at sea. 

War risk premiums, tanker rates, actual vessel transits, ton-mile demand and charterer behaviour are expected to show whether the market believes the region is entering a more stable phase. 

Insurance costs, in particular, will be closely watched, as they will indicate whether insurers consider the risk of further incidents to have eased or whether the region remains exposed to new disruptions. 

The operational picture also remains complicated. Questions remain over the security regime in the area, the corridors that will be used, possible mine-clearing operations and the extent of control Iran may continue to exercise over navigation. 

Reuters reported that Iran has suggested it will retain control with Oman over the strait, while the US has said the waterway will be open toll-free for 60 days and that it expects this provision to form part of a final agreement. 

For shipowners, these are not technical details. They are the factors that determine whether vessels can move safely, whether crews can be protected and whether cargoes can reach international markets without further delays. 

The shipping market has also not forgotten how quickly previous attempts at de-escalation unravelled during the crisis. 

Attacks on commercial ships, tanker seizures and military incidents kept the level of insecurity high for months, forcing many operators to delay voyages or reroute vessels. 

As a result, the first reaction from shipping has not been a rush back into the area, but a more cautious wait-and-see approach. 

BIMCO, the world’s largest international shipping association, said that transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains too dangerous for ships at this stage. 

The association said the security situation for the maritime industry remains fluid, while the possible threat of mines in the Strait continues to be a major source of concern. 

Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer, also said that mine-free routes need to be established and credible assurances given before traffic can fully return to pre-conflict levels. 

That cautious tone reflects the broader mood across the sector. 

The latest data also suggest that traffic is only beginning to resume. 

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data cited by The National, only two eastbound cargo-carrying vessels, including one LNG tanker and one general cargo ship, had transited the strait by early Monday afternoon UAE time. 

Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic said that, even assuming about 15 safe transits per day, mostly out of the Gulf, the process could still take around 30 to 35 days. 

This means that even if the waterway is declared open, vessel behaviour may remain cautious until safe-passage procedures are tested and trusted. 

While financial markets have responded positively to the agreement, shipping companies are likely to move more slowly, waiting for clear evidence that the route is secure and that vessels can pass through without facing new risks. 

For Cyprus, the issue also carries a direct shipping dimension. 

The Shipping Deputy Ministry previously told the Cyprus Mail that 19 Cypriot-flagged ships were in the Arabian Gulf region, adding that both the vessels and the seafarers working on them were safe. 

At the time, the ministry said most of the ships operated in the region on a permanent basis, mainly providing specialised or auxiliary maritime services. 

It also said that only one Cypriot ship was loaded with cargo, waiting to depart from the region when conditions allowed. 

The disruption also came against a wider backdrop of pressure on global shipping, with trade tensions, dark fleet risks and fuel fears already weighing on the market before the latest de-escalation. 

Analysts also warn that the wider effects of the crisis will not disappear overnight. 

The disruption did not only affect energy prices. It also reshaped trade patterns, increased transport costs, changed procurement strategies and forced governments and businesses to think again about their exposure to geopolitical risk. 

For that reason, the return to normality is expected to be gradual. 

The coming weeks will therefore be crucial. If ships begin moving through Hormuz without incident, insurance premiums ease and tanker rates stabilise, confidence could slowly return. 

If, however, delays continue or fresh security concerns emerge, the agreement may be seen less as a turning point and more as a fragile pause. 

For now, the US-Iran deal has given markets a reason to breathe. But for shipping, the real test is only beginning. The industry will be the first to show whether de-escalation can turn into lasting stability, or whether the world’s most important energy corridor remains one incident away from renewed disruption.