Pro-federal solution political party the CTP is on course for a landslide victory at the next Turkish Cypriot legislative election, according to a poll published on Wednesday.

The poll, which was published by CMIRS and asked 500 people their voting intention ahead of the election, which will most likely take place on December 6, saw the CTP win the support of 47.3 per cent of respondents, more than twice the figure of the next-largest party.

In second place is the UBP, the senior partner in the current ruling coalition, with just 21.7 per cent, while the TDP, another pro-federal solution party, sits in a surprise third place, on 4.8 per cent, with the party having lost all its seats in the Turkish Cypriot legislature at the most recent election, which was held in 2022.

The YDP, which left the ruling coalition after its leader Erhan Arikli was relieved of his duties as ‘transport minister’ earlier this month, sits in fourth place, on 3.6 per cent, while the DP, the ruling coalition’s junior partner, sits on 1.3 per cent.

Former Turkish Cypriot chief negotiator Kudret Ozersay’s HP sits in sixth place, with the support of 1.1 per cent of respondents.

Were such a result to play out on election night, the CTP would likely win 32 of the legislature’s 50 seats, and thus be able to form the next Turkish Cypriot administration without requiring coalition partners.

CTP leader Sila Usar Incirli would become the second female Turkish Cypriot ‘prime minister’, and the first Turkish Cypriot female party leader to win an election, and do so with a majority larger than at any Turkish Cypriot legislative election in history except for 1990, when Dervish Eroglu’s UBP won 34 seats.

The UBP would win 15 seats and the TDP would win three seats, while the YDP, the DP, and the HP would all fail to win any seats.

Election date not yet confirmed, but likely December 6

At present, the UBP has 23 seats, the CTP has 18, the YDP and the DP have two apiece, and four people sit as independents in the legislature, with one seat remaining vacant after Tufan Erhurman left the legislature to become Turkish Cypriot leader last October.

While the date of the election has not yet been set, it is likely that it will be held on December 6, with incumbent ‘prime minister’ Unal Ustel appearing to have the support in the legislature to ensure that that will be the date, despite the CTP wishing for the election to be held sooner.

The Turkish Cypriot legislature is set to vote on the date of the election on October 8, when the bill’s passage will likely be followed by the legislature dissolving itself to allow for a two-month campaign ahead of that election. Turkish Cypriot local elections will also be held on December 6.

On this matter, Incirli had said last week that while her party is “ready for two elections to be held on the same day”, such a thing may cause “serious crises and disruptions”.

However, Ustel insisted that holding both elections on December 6 will be “auspicious”.

Additionally, the ruling coalition plans to change the voting system and do away with the “mixed voting” ahead of the next election, meaning that voters would now only be able to choose candidates from one party, rather than having the option of choosing individual candidates from multiple parties.

The plans were passed by the legislature last week, but were then vetoed by Erhurman, who said that “amending electoral legislation shortly before an election raises questions regarding the principle of a democratic state and the right to vote and stand for election”.

On this front, he pointed out that in Turkey, changes to electoral law only take force one year after they are passed, thus preventing those in power from changing the system at the last minute for their own benefit.

However, Ustel confirmed on Monday that he has re-tabled the same bill for the October 8 plenary session. Erhurman does not have the right to veto it a second time.