Incumbent Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar leads challenger and opposition party CTP leader Tufan Erhurman by 1.7 per cent in the latest poll to ask Turkish Cypriots who they will vote for at October’s leadership election.

According to the poll, which was conducted by Turkish research company Genar for the Anadolu Agency, Tatar would win 37.5 per cent of such a vote, and Erhurman would win 35.8 per cent.

Genar’s head of research Ihsan Aktas wrote that much of Tatar’s chances of winning re-election rest with undecided voters and people who did note vote at the last Turkish Cypriot leadership election in 2020.

“Ersin Tatar can gain the support of undecided voters if he positions his actions and future promises by presenting a strong communication strategy.

“Tatar can already gain an advantage over his opponents with the strong stance he displays on issues such as the Blue Homeland, strengthening relations with Turkey, and the increase in the TRNC’s visibility in the international arena,” Aktas wrote.

He added that Tatar’s “determined stance, strategic vision, and sincere ties with the people” as well as his “successful maintenance of strong ties with Turkey” will help increase his overall popularity among Turkish Cypriot people.

“All of this has created great confidence among the people of the TRNC and a strengthened hope for Turkish Cypriots for the future. With the right campaign strategy, Tatar can regain the people’s support and emerge victorious from the ballot box and continue to serve the TRNC’s interests as a strong leader for the future,” he said.

Genar’s poll is the latest to predict a two-horse race for October’s election, with a poll conducted by CMIRS earlier this month having predicted that he would win 29.8 per cent of the vote and Erhurman would win 34.5 per cent, with no other candidate polling in double figures.

Such a two-horse race is set to see Turkish Cypriots faced with a binary choice between a leader who will advocate for a two-state solution to the Cyprus problem in Tatar, and one who will advocate for a federal solution in Erhurman.

Erhurman’s party the CTP unveiled a five-point plan for Cyprus problem negotiations in September, which stipulate that all convergences found at Crans Montana in 2017 must be adhered to and that there be no going back on the issues agreed on.

They also stipulate and that a solution be found on the basis of a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality, that the negotiation process be “results-oriented” and that no party leaves the negotiating table, that the negotiating process have “a timetable with a sense of urgency”, and that it be impossible to return to the status quo once negotiations begin.

Were Tatar to win re-election, he would be the first Turkish Cypriot leader to do so since Rauf Denktash won by default in 2000 after his second round opponent Dervish Eroglu withdrew his candidacy.

Since then, Denktash did not stand for re-election and was replaced by Mehmet Ali Talat in 2005, Talat was beaten by Eroglu in 2010, Eroglu was beaten by Mustafa Akinci in 2015, and Akinci was beaten by Tatar in 2020.