Progress at the climate summit COP30, taking place at Belem in Brazil and being attended by more than 190 countries, has been slow and patchy.

Agreements on most of the contentious issues are hard to come by.

This is leading to frantic negotiations over the remaining two days, as we get to the end-date Friday, to rescue what so far has been a lackluster summit.

In order to help drive agreement, especially on issues requiring consensus, a draft document, the Belem Political Package (BPP), was issued on Tuesday covering the crucial issues at the summit, including the effect of climate action on trade, finance, a carbon levy, the just transition, climate adaptation and roadmaps for fossil fuels and deforestation, but only briefly.

However, for each of the key issues there is a long list of possible outcomes “without attempting to turn them into formal legal text.”

Brazil is pushing hard to get the BPP finalised and approved by Friday, the last day of the summit, but divisions persist, especially on finance and emissions cuts. This is expected to guide the next steps in global climate action.

International trade

Discussions on trade and climate revolve around real money, real industries and real power imbalances. These make them politically sensitive.

Establishing new platforms on trade and climate is proving to be tricky, requiring buy-in from many.

The key themes are carbon border measures, fossil fuel subsidy reform and trade flows, trade exposure of developing countries and proposals for a new institutional mechanism under the UN for a just transition in trade rules.

The last is meeting particular resistance with many questioning whether the UN should have a mandate to discuss, influence or pass judgement on global trade policy.

What makes the aforementioned themes particularly tricky politically is that the stakes are enormous involving trillions of dollars in trade flows and because they force countries to confront the real economic consequences of climate action, not just emissions targets. They could have a serious economic impact.

Carbon levy

The proposal to agree and apply a global carbon levy is hitting a roadblock.

There is huge backlash against the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), that involves applying carbon levies on goods imported into the EU, due to come into force next year. It is receiving considerable opposition as a “unilateral trade measure.”

Adding to pressure on the EU, a report by the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said that “EU’s CBAM would bring down global emissions by barely 0.1 per cent with developing countries paying a large portion of that price.”

China, India and many other countries want COP30 to adopt a decision against unilateral trade barriers.

Trump has also repeatedly attacked the EU’s climate agenda, including CBAM, demanding exemptions for American firms.

In response to this, the BPP issued on Tuesday proposes establishment of a ‘Platform on Unilateral Trade-Restrictive Measures Related to Climate Change’ to consider the impact of such measures, particularly for developing countries.

This, of course, is unacceptable to the EU, becoming yet another major contentious issue.

Roadmaps

Many are pushing for roadmaps on some key issues, but getting endorsement is another matter.

A roadmap for a global transition away from fossil fuels is now backed by over 80 countries.

UK energy secretary Ed Miliband said reducing dependence on fossil fuels ‘must be at the heart of this COP.” But, not surprisingly, this is facing strong resistance from oil-producers.

It is becoming a “red line” issue. Some countries “want more progress while others argued against the proposal because they did not want any additional obligations”. It is hard to see it going through.

Deforestation continues to receive considerable attention, with many asking for a roadmap to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, with “real actions and ambition to bend the curve on forest loss”.

Colombia’s Environment Minister Irene Vélez-Torres said “we need to see the global north come behind a roadmap – and quickly”. But the draft of the final COP30 agreement does not go that far.

What is hoped to be achieved

One key observation that makes consensus at this COP harder is that “the spirit of cooperation that once existed, for example in Paris, has been shattered by economic rivalries and a stark divergence in climate policies among the world’s biggest polluters.” 

With the US absent, a weak EU and China, India and developing countries flexing their muscles, direction is missing.

In order to achieve a deal, Brazil has proposed what it calls a ‘Mutirão Decision’ – a cover decision. This would be “a politically negotiated statement that is not tied to a specific agenda item but bundles together key issues,” such as finance, emissions ambition, and trade and climate.

The text would be political and in many parts not legally binding. For example, it suggests more negotiation and encourages stronger NDCs, but doesn’t force more ambitious reductions now.

But when it comes to anything involving money, agreement is harder to achieve.

On climate finance it proposes a number of options, including a three-year work programme to scale up climate finance from richer nations, particularly for adaptation.

On trade and climate, it includes “different possible institutional mechanisms to address trade-related climate issues: annual dialogues, consultations, even a new platform dedicated to trade and climate issues.”

It is possible that a unifying focus may be achieved by putting nature at the heart of climate action. This means “strengthening commitments to protect forests, uphold the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities, and expand nature-based solutions as essential pillars of global progress.”

But with so many options on the table, the risk is that, with time running out, there is still no guarantee of consensus. It is likely that the final outcome may be political, with mostly non-binding commitments.