Dry cargo ship values are rising faster than freight rates can justify, pointing to a structural revaluation of larger vessels rather than a short-term market cycle, according to Xclusiv Shipbrokers. 

In its analysis covering the period from late February to late April 2026, the shipbroker said the dry bulk market had moved through a period of sharp geopolitical uncertainty and uneven charter market performance, while vessel prices, particularly in the larger segments, continued to climb. 

“The market is entering a phase where asset valuations are ahead of the actual charter market, indicating deeper shipowner confidence in the long-term prospects,” Xclusiv analysts said. 

The clearest shift was recorded in the Capesize segment, which initially came under pressure following military tensions between the US and Iran. The Baltic C5TC index fell from $24,211 per day at the end of February to $19,188 per day by March 10. 

However, the correction proved short-lived. By April 24, the index had climbed to $35,333 per day, marking an 86 per cent increase from its March low and a 47 per cent rise compared with the start of the period. 

“The speed of the recovery in Capesize confirms that the market has depth and buying interest, even in an environment of uncertainty,” the analysts said. 

By contrast, the Kamsarmax market moved within a much narrower range. Rates fell from $17,481 per day to $15,682 per day by the end of March, before recovering to $17,638 per day, leaving the segment broadly unchanged over the period. 

The Ultramax segment showed stronger momentum, with rates reaching $19,403 per day, their highest level since late 2023. Handysize vessels remained the weakest part of the market, failing to return to February levels despite a partial recovery in recent weeks. 

Xclusiv said the most important development was not the movement in freight rates, but the widening gap between earnings and asset values. 

Although Capesize daily revenues are close to levels seen in earlier periods, at around $35,000 per day, vessel prices have risen sharply. Capesize values stood at $57 million in March 2024, rose to $64 million in December 2025, and have now reached $71 million. 

“The 25 per cent increase in values without a corresponding increase in freight rates is not a cyclical phenomenon, but a structural repricing,” the analysts said. 

A similar, though less pronounced, trend has also emerged in the Ultramax segment, where prices have risen by 23 per cent in around two and a half years, despite earnings remaining broadly stable at about $15,000 per day. 

However, the trend is not being seen across the entire dry bulk market. Xclusiv said Kamsarmax and Handysize values have either stagnated or declined slightly compared with 2024, suggesting that investor appetite is increasingly focused on specific vessel classes. 

“The premium is concentrated in the largest sizes, where limited supply and exposure to long-haul trades create a strategic advantage,” the analysts said. 

According to the shipbroker, this points to a market that is no longer being shaped only by short-term freight movements. Instead, vessel prices are increasingly reflecting expectations of tighter future supply and stronger long-term demand. 

“We are facing a paradigm shift, where the value of the asset reflects more the tomorrow of the market than the today of the freight rates,” the analysts concluded.